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NFL All Day · Pack #5647

3rd/4th Round Defense - Rookie Debut Moments (2025 Draft)

Common

Value still sealed≈ $0.20/pack▼ 90% below the $2.00 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (98% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $2.00

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$2.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

4,381

complete open history

Moments pulled

4,381

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$1.05

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$0.18

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

101

still unopened

Opened share

98%

of all minted packs

EV reality check

Modeled $0.20/packvs realized $0.18 avg · $0.15 median(0.90×)

Model tracks actual pulls · 4,381 attributed opens

Sealed pack resale

Last $1.00 · 10mo ago49 sales

Pack price

—

Actual EV

$0.20

Net −$1.80 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (98% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $2.00

Value ratio

0.10x

-90.0% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (98% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $2.00

FMV coverage

—

Depletion

98%

of all minted packs · as of 84d ago

Packs remaining

101

of 4,482 minted · as of 84d ago

EV is odds-corrected — tiers valued by median FMV and weighted by circulation share (a robust cross-check of the headline supply-weighted EV, resistant to per-edition FMV outliers).

Packs Content Remaining

pool

2.3%unopened

101 / 4,482 packs

Top chases

highest-FMV pulls in this pack

What's Inside

pullable editions

Sales History

secondary pack sales

Traced via opened packs — partial coverage that grows over time. Buyer links open the wallet's full intelligence.

No traced sales yet for this pack.

Top pulls by EV

top 6 of ?

Player	Set	Tier	Drop %	FMV	Edition EV
Shavon Revel	Rookie Debut	COMMON	16.67%	$0.20	—
Caleb Ransaw	Rookie Debut	COMMON	16.67%	$0.20	—
Darien Porter	Rookie Debut	COMMON	16.67%	$0.15	—
Barrett Carter	Rookie Debut	COMMON	16.67%	$0.15	—
Xavier Watts	Rookie Debut	COMMON	16.67%	$0.41	—
Josaiah Stewart	Rookie Debut	COMMON	16.67%	$0.25	—

Edition EV = FMV × (drop_weight / pool_weight) × slots. Sums to Gross EV over the full pool. Snapshotted —. Methodology: cached pack_ev_history via the compute-pack-ev edge function.