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NFL All Day · Pack #5649

2nd Round Defense - 2025 Draft Challenge Makeup

Standard

Value still sealed≈ $0.15/pack▼ 93% below the $2.00 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 98% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $2.00 ask

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$2.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

4,443

complete open history

Moments pulled

4,443

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$5.01

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$0.17

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

still unopened

Opened share

98%

of all minted packs

EV reality check

Modeled $0.15/packvs realized $0.17 avg · $0.16 median(1.13×)

Model tracks actual pulls · 4,443 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Davante Adams · Base	COMMON	0.57%	$0.33	1.2%
Aidan O'Connell · Base	COMMON	0.57%	$0.24	0.9%

Sealed pack resale

Last $2.00 · 1y ago57 sales

Pack price

—

No retail price

Actual EV

$0.15

Net −$1.85 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 98% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $2.00 ask

Value ratio

0.07x

-92.5% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 98% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $2.00 ask

FMV coverage

—

Depletion

98%

of all minted packs · as of 130d ago

Packs remaining

of 4,542 minted · as of 130d ago

EV is odds-corrected — tiers valued by median FMV and weighted by circulation share (a robust cross-check of the headline supply-weighted EV, resistant to per-edition FMV outliers).

Packs Content Remaining

pool

2.2%unopened

99 / 4,542 packs

Top chases

highest-FMV pulls in this pack

CommonHit 0.19%

Nick Emmanwori

Rookie Debut

Player	Set	Tier	Drop %	FMV	Edition EV
Harold Landry	Base	COMMON	0.57%	$0.15	—
Ty Chandler	Base	COMMON	0.57%	$0.14	—
Miles Sanders	Base	COMMON	0.57%	$0.14	—
Christian Watson	Base	COMMON	0.57%	$0.13	—
Kerby Joseph	Base	COMMON	0.57%	$0.15	—
Ivan Pace	Base	COMMON	0.57%	$0.16	—
Jake Ferguson	Base	COMMON	0.57%	$0.16	—
Stefon Diggs	Base	COMMON	0.57%	$0.14	—
Ezekiel Elliott	Base	COMMON	0.57%	$0.18	—
Khalil Herbert	Base	COMMON	0.57%	$0.14	—

2nd Round Defense - 2025 Draft Challenge Makeup

What drives the remaining EV

Packs Content Remaining

Top chases

What's Inside

Sales History

Top pulls by EV

What drives the remaining EV

Sales History

Top pulls by EV