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NFL All Day · Pack #5817

Holo Icon: Legendary Guaranteed Hit (September - 2025)

Legendary

Value still sealed≈ $1.13/pack▼ 100% below the $500 secondary askTypical pull ≈ $0.85

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$500] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

293

complete open history

Moments pulled

1,465

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$38.51

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$38.51

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

315

still unopened

Opened share

48%

of all minted packs

EV reality check

Modeled $1.13/packvs realized $38.51 avg · $38.51 median(34.08×)

Model under-values vs actual pulls · 293 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Josh Allen · Holo Icon Signature Edition	LEGENDARY	<0.01%	$700	6.0%
Amon-Ra St. Brown · Holo Icon	LEGENDARY	<0.01%	$206	4.6%
James Cook

Sealed pack resale

Last $440 · 11mo agoRetail $499122 sales

Pack price

$500

Actual EV

$1.13

Mean pull · Net −$499 vs ask

Typical Pull

$0.85

Weighted-median pull value

Value ratio

0.00x

-99.8% margin

FMV coverage

98%

189 editions

Depletion

48%

of all minted packs · as of 130d ago

Packs remaining

315

of 608 minted · as of 130d ago

EV is odds-corrected — tiers valued by median FMV and weighted by circulation share (a robust cross-check of the headline supply-weighted EV, resistant to per-edition FMV outliers).

Packs Content Remaining

pool

52%unopened

315 / 608 packs

Top chases

highest-FMV pulls in this pack

LegendaryHit <0.01%

Josh Allen

Holo Icon Signature Edition

Holo Icon Signature Edition

What's Inside

FMV priced 185 of 189 (98%)

Sorted among the 24 loaded editions · load more to sort the rest

Player	Set	Tier	Drop %	FMV	Edition EV
Demario Douglas	Base	COMMON	0.16%	$0.15	—
Christian McCaffrey	Base	COMMON	0.16%	$0.16	—
Evan McPherson	Base	COMMON	0.16%	$0.13	—
Ji'Ayir Brown	Base	COMMON	0.16%	$0.20	—
Chase Brown	Base	COMMON	0.16%	$0.20	—
Travis Etienne	Base	COMMON	0.16%	$0.17	—
Christian Barmore	Base	COMMON	0.16%	$0.15	—
Fred Warner	Base	COMMON	0.16%	$0.13	—
Kyle Dugger	Base	COMMON	0.16%	$0.15	—
Dalton Kincaid	Base	COMMON	0.16%	$0.16	—

Holo Icon: Legendary Guaranteed Hit (September - 2025)

What drives the remaining EV

Packs Content Remaining

Top chases

What's Inside

Sales History

Top pulls by EV

Sales History

Top pulls by EV

What drives the remaining EV