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NFL All Day · Pack #5863

2025 Playbook Week 4 - Classic

Standard

Value still sealed≈ $0.18/pack▼ 98% below the $8.00 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 92% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $8.00 ask

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$8.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

915

complete open history

Moments pulled

915

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$9.55

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$0.38

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

still unopened

Opened share

92%

of all minted packs

EV reality check

Modeled $0.18/packvs realized $0.38 avg · $0.17 median(2.11×)

Model under-values vs actual pulls · 915 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Amon-Ra St. Brown · Holo Icon	LEGENDARY	<0.01%	$206	7.7%
James Cook · Holo Icon	LEGENDARY	<0.01%	$203	7.6%
Patrick Mahomes II

Sealed pack resale

Last $3.00 · 8mo ago66 sales

Pack price

—

No retail price

Actual EV

$0.18

Net −$7.82 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 92% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $8.00 ask

Value ratio

0.02x

-97.8% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 92% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $8.00 ask

FMV coverage

—

Depletion

92%

of all minted packs · as of 27d ago

Packs remaining

of 1,000 minted · as of 27d ago

EV is odds-corrected — tiers valued by median FMV and weighted by circulation share (a robust cross-check of the headline supply-weighted EV, resistant to per-edition FMV outliers).

Packs Content Remaining

pool

8.5%unopened

85 / 1,000 packs

Top chases

highest-FMV pulls in this pack

Holo Icon Signature Edition

What's Inside

pullable editions

Sorted among the 24 loaded editions · load more to sort the rest

Player	Set	Tier	Drop %	FMV	Edition EV
Josh Hines-Allen	Base	COMMON	1.74%	$0.16	—
Dalton Kincaid	Base	COMMON	1.74%	$0.16	—
Nick Bolton	Base	COMMON	1.74%	$0.15	—
Ji'Ayir Brown	Base	COMMON	1.74%	$0.20	—
Demario Douglas	Base	COMMON	1.74%	$0.14	—
Hunter Henry	Base	COMMON	1.74%	$0.14	—
Khalil Shakir	Base	COMMON	1.74%	$0.13	—
Marcus Jones	Base	COMMON	1.74%	$0.10	—
Travon Walker	Base	COMMON	1.74%	$0.13	—
Trey Hendrickson	Base	COMMON	1.74%	$0.19	—

2025 Playbook Week 4 - Classic

What drives the remaining EV

Packs Content Remaining

Top chases

What's Inside

Sales History

Top pulls by EV

Sales History

Top pulls by EV

What drives the remaining EV