Momentum Playbook - 10 yards (Playbook Reward)

Standard

Value still sealed≈ $0.50/pack▼ 83% below the $3.00 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 92% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $3.00 ask

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$3.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

2,117

complete open history

Moments pulled

2,117

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$1.25

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$0.42

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

174

still unopened

Opened share

92%

of all minted packs

EV reality check

Modeled $0.50/packvs realized $0.42 avg · $0.25 median(0.84×)

Model tracks actual pulls · 2,117 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Jonathan Taylor · Road to 100	UNCOMMON	49.98%	$0.75	75.0%
Alvin Kamara · Road to 100	UNCOMMON	50.02%	$0.25	25.0%

EV share = pull odds × FMV ÷ per-slot EV, over the editions remaining in the pool.

Sealed pack resale

Last $2.00 · 2y ago71 sales

Pack price

—

No retail price

Actual EV

$0.50

Net −$2.50 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 92% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $3.00 ask

Value ratio

0.17x

-83.3% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 92% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $3.00 ask

FMV coverage

—

Depletion

92%

of all minted packs · as of 41d ago

Packs remaining

174

of 2,291 minted · as of 41d ago

EV is odds-corrected — tiers valued by median FMV and weighted by circulation share (a robust cross-check of the headline supply-weighted EV, resistant to per-edition FMV outliers).