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NFL All Day · Pack #621

Momentum Playbook - 10 yards (Playbook Reward)

Standard

Value still sealed≈ $0.44/pack▼ 85% below the $3.00 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (92% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $3.00

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$3.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

2,116

complete open history

Moments pulled

2,116

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$1.68

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$0.84

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

175

still unopened

Opened share

92%

of all minted packs

EV reality check

Modeled $0.44/packvs realized $0.84 avg · $0.84 median(1.91×)

Model under-values vs actual pulls · 2,116 attributed opens

Sealed pack resale

Last $2.00 · 2y ago71 sales

Pack price

—

Actual EV

$0.44

Net −$2.56 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (92% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $3.00

Value ratio

0.15x

-85.3% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (92% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $3.00

FMV coverage

—

Depletion

92%

of all minted packs

Packs remaining

175

of 2,291 minted

EV is odds-corrected — tiers valued by median FMV and weighted by circulation share (a robust cross-check of the headline supply-weighted EV, resistant to per-edition FMV outliers).

Packs Content Remaining

live pool

7.6%unopened

175 / 2,291 packs

Top chases

highest-FMV pulls in this pack

What's Inside

pullable editions

Sales History

secondary pack sales

Traced via opened packs — partial coverage that grows over time. Buyer links open the wallet's full intelligence.

No traced sales yet for this pack.

Top pulls by EV

top 2 of ?

Player	Set	Tier	Drop %	FMV	Edition EV
Alvin Kamara	Road to 100	UNCOMMON	50.02%	$0.26	—
Jonathan Taylor	Road to 100	UNCOMMON	49.98%	$0.61	—

Edition EV = FMV × (drop_weight / pool_weight) × slots. Sums to Gross EV over the full pool. Snapshotted —. Methodology: cached pack_ev_history via the compute-pack-ev edge function.