2025 Draw It Up Crafting Reward - Patrick Mahomes II

Rare

Value still sealed≈ $3.40/pack▼ 77% below the $15.00 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 95% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $15.00 ask

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$15.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

331

complete open history

Moments pulled

331

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$60.00

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$4.00

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

still unopened

Opened share

95%

of all minted packs

EV reality check

Modeled $3.40/packvs realized $4.00 avg · $4.00 median(1.18×)

Model tracks actual pulls · 331 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Patrick Mahomes · Draw it Up	RARE	100.00%	$3.40	100.0%

EV share = pull odds × FMV ÷ per-slot EV, over the editions remaining in the pool.

Sealed pack resale

Median $15.95 (90d)Last $15.95 · 1mo ago16 sales · 1 in 90d

Pack price

—

No retail price

Actual EV

$3.40

Net −$11.60 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 95% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $15.00 ask

Value ratio

0.23x

-77.3% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 95% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $15.00 ask

FMV coverage

—

Depletion

95%

of all minted packs · as of 129d ago

Packs remaining

of 350 minted · as of 129d ago

EV is odds-corrected — tiers valued by median FMV and weighted by circulation share (a robust cross-check of the headline supply-weighted EV, resistant to per-edition FMV outliers).