2025 Metallic Gold LE Locking Challenge Reward - Patrick Mahomes II

Rare

Value still sealed≈ $18.90/pack▼ 86% below the $139 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 99% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $139 ask

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$139] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

103

complete open history

Moments pulled

103

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$75.60

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$18.90

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

still unopened

Opened share

99%

of all minted packs

EV reality check

Modeled $18.90/packvs realized $18.90 avg · $18.90 median(1.00×)

Model tracks actual pulls · 103 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Patrick Mahomes · Metallic Gold LE	RARE	100.00%	$18.90	100.0%

EV share = pull odds × FMV ÷ per-slot EV, over the editions remaining in the pool.

Pack price

—

No retail price

Actual EV

$18.90

Net −$120 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 99% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $139 ask

Value ratio

0.14x

-86.4% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 99% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $139 ask

FMV coverage

—

Depletion

99%

of all minted packs · as of 129d ago

Packs remaining

of 104 minted · as of 129d ago

EV is odds-corrected — tiers valued by median FMV and weighted by circulation share (a robust cross-check of the headline supply-weighted EV, resistant to per-edition FMV outliers).