2025 Draw It Up Crafting Reward - Derrick Henry

Rare

Value still sealed≈ $3.00/pack▼ 90% below the $29.00 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 99% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $29.00 ask

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$29.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

153

complete open history

Moments pulled

153

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$15.27

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$2.18

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

still unopened

Opened share

99%

of all minted packs

EV reality check

Modeled $3.00/packvs realized $2.18 avg · $3.00 median(0.73×)

Model tracks actual pulls · 153 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Derrick Henry · Draw it Up	RARE	100.00%	$3.00	100.0%

EV share = pull odds × FMV ÷ per-slot EV, over the editions remaining in the pool.

Sealed pack resale

Last $10.00 · 11mo ago4 sales

Pack price

—

No retail price

Actual EV

$3.00

Net −$26.00 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 99% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $29.00 ask

Value ratio

0.10x

-89.7% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 99% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $29.00 ask

FMV coverage

—

Depletion

99%

of all minted packs · as of 129d ago

Packs remaining

of 155 minted · as of 129d ago

EV is odds-corrected — tiers valued by median FMV and weighted by circulation share (a robust cross-check of the headline supply-weighted EV, resistant to per-edition FMV outliers).