2025 Chicago Bears Souvenir Reward - Colston Loveland

Common

Value still sealed≈ $0.86/pack▼ 57% below the $2.00 secondary ask

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$2.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

443

complete open history

Moments pulled

443

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$46.00

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$0.92

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

2,557

still unopened

Opened share

15%

of all minted packs

EV reality check

Modeled $0.86/packvs realized $0.92 avg · $0.94 median(1.07×)

Model tracks actual pulls · 443 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Colston Loveland · Souvenir	COMMON	100.00%	$0.86	100.0%

EV share = pull odds × FMV ÷ per-slot EV, over the editions remaining in the pool.

Sealed pack resale

Median $2.00 (90d)Last $2.00 · 2mo ago26 sales · 3 in 90d

Pack price

—

No retail price

Actual EV

$0.86

Mean pull · Net −$1.14 vs ask

Value ratio

0.43x

-57.0% margin

FMV coverage

—

Depletion

15%

of all minted packs · as of 49d ago

Packs remaining

2,557

of 3,000 minted · as of 49d ago

EV is odds-corrected — tiers valued by median FMV and weighted by circulation share (a robust cross-check of the headline supply-weighted EV, resistant to per-edition FMV outliers).