2025 Draw It Up Reward - Travis Kelce

Rare

Value still sealed≈ $6.80/pack▼ 77% below the $29.00 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 98% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $29.00 ask

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$29.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

complete open history

Moments pulled

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$180

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$5.00

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

still unopened

Opened share

98%

of all minted packs

EV reality check

Modeled $6.80/packvs realized $5.00 avg · $5.00 median(0.73×)

Model tracks actual pulls · 89 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Travis Kelce · Draw it Up	RARE	100.00%	$6.80	100.0%

EV share = pull odds × FMV ÷ per-slot EV, over the editions remaining in the pool.

Sealed pack resale

Last $29.00 · 10mo ago1 sale

Pack price

—

No retail price

Actual EV

$6.80

Net −$22.20 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 98% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $29.00 ask

Value ratio

0.23x

-76.6% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 98% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $29.00 ask

FMV coverage

—

Depletion

98%

of all minted packs · as of 129d ago

Packs remaining

of 91 minted · as of 129d ago

EV is odds-corrected — tiers valued by median FMV and weighted by circulation share (a robust cross-check of the headline supply-weighted EV, resistant to per-edition FMV outliers).