2025 Draw It Up Reward - Dak Prescott

Rare

Value still sealed≈ $2.00/pack▼ 93% below the $29.00 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 97% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $29.00 ask

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$29.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

159

complete open history

Moments pulled

159

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$170

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$2.40

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

still unopened

Opened share

97%

of all minted packs

EV reality check

Modeled $2.00/packvs realized $2.40 avg · $2.70 median(1.20×)

Model tracks actual pulls · 159 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Dak Prescott · Draw it Up	RARE	100.00%	$2.00	100.0%

EV share = pull odds × FMV ÷ per-slot EV, over the editions remaining in the pool.

Sealed pack resale

Last $14.00 · 10mo ago1 sale

Pack price

—

No retail price

Actual EV

$2.00

Net −$27.00 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 97% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $29.00 ask

Value ratio

0.07x

-93.1% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 97% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $29.00 ask

FMV coverage

—

Depletion

97%

of all minted packs · as of 129d ago

Packs remaining

of 164 minted · as of 129d ago

EV is odds-corrected — tiers valued by median FMV and weighted by circulation share (a robust cross-check of the headline supply-weighted EV, resistant to per-edition FMV outliers).