2025 Draw It Up Reward - Philip Rivers

Rare

Value still sealed≈ $2.55/pack▼ 89% below the $23.50 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 96% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $23.50 ask

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$23.50] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

170

complete open history

Moments pulled

170

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$2,699

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$23.68

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

still unopened

Opened share

96%

of all minted packs

EV reality check

Modeled $2.55/packvs realized $23.68 avg · $36.00 median(9.29×)

Model under-values vs actual pulls · 170 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Philip Rivers · Draw it Up	RARE	100.00%	$2.55	100.0%

EV share = pull odds × FMV ÷ per-slot EV, over the editions remaining in the pool.

Sealed pack resale

Last $15.00 · 9mo ago4 sales

Pack price

—

No retail price

Actual EV

$2.55

Net −$20.95 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 96% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $23.50 ask

Value ratio

0.11x

-89.1% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 96% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $23.50 ask

FMV coverage

—

Depletion

96%

of all minted packs · as of 129d ago

Packs remaining

of 178 minted · as of 129d ago

EV is odds-corrected — tiers valued by median FMV and weighted by circulation share (a robust cross-check of the headline supply-weighted EV, resistant to per-edition FMV outliers).