2025 Wild Card Weekend Sapphire Trade In Reward - TJ Watt

Rare

Value still sealed≈ $18.00/pack▼ 33% below the $27.00 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 96% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $27.00 ask

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$27.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

complete open history

Moments pulled

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$324

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$18.00

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

still unopened

Opened share

96%

of all minted packs

EV reality check

Modeled $18.00/packvs realized $18.00 avg · $18.00 median(1.00×)

Model tracks actual pulls · 23 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
T.J. Watt · Wild Card Weekend Gold (Parallel)	RARE	100.00%	$18.00	100.0%

EV share = pull odds × FMV ÷ per-slot EV, over the editions remaining in the pool.

Pack price

—

No retail price

Actual EV

$18.00

Net −$9.00 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 96% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $27.00 ask

Value ratio

0.67x

-33.3% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 96% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $27.00 ask

FMV coverage

—

Depletion

96%

of all minted packs · as of 129d ago

Packs remaining

of 24 minted · as of 129d ago

EV is odds-corrected — tiers valued by median FMV and weighted by circulation share (a robust cross-check of the headline supply-weighted EV, resistant to per-edition FMV outliers). ~100% of pack value rests on sparse or missing sales data.