2025 Wild Card Weekend Uncommon Reward - Josh Allen

Rare

Value still sealed≈ $9.00/pack▼ 77% below the $39.00 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 99% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $39.00 ask

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$39.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

complete open history

Moments pulled

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$560

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$15.13

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

still unopened

Opened share

99%

of all minted packs

EV reality check

Modeled $9.00/packvs realized $15.13 avg · $19.29 median(1.68×)

Model under-values vs actual pulls · 67 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Josh Allen · Playoff (Parallel)	UNCOMMON	100.00%	$9.00	100.0%

EV share = pull odds × FMV ÷ per-slot EV, over the editions remaining in the pool.

Sealed pack resale

Last $19.00 · 9mo ago1 sale

Pack price

—

No retail price

Actual EV

$9.00

Net −$30.00 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 99% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $39.00 ask

Value ratio

0.23x

-76.9% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 99% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $39.00 ask

FMV coverage

—

Depletion

99%

of all minted packs · as of 129d ago

Packs remaining

of 68 minted · as of 129d ago

EV is odds-corrected — tiers valued by median FMV and weighted by circulation share (a robust cross-check of the headline supply-weighted EV, resistant to per-edition FMV outliers). ~100% of pack value rests on sparse or missing sales data.