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NFL All Day · Pack #70

Playbook: One-Star Reward (Series 2, Week 6)

Standard1 slot

Value still sealed≈ $0.20/pack▼ 96% below the $5.00 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 97% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $5.00 ask

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$5.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

10,781

complete open history

Moments pulled

10,781

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$1.50

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$0.25

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

327

still unopened

Opened share

97%

of all minted packs

EV reality check

Modeled $0.20/packvs realized $0.25 avg · $0.25 median(1.25×)

Model tracks actual pulls · 10,781 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Saquon Barkley · Base	COMMON	2.50%	$1.00	9.5%
Julio Jones · Base	COMMON	2.50%	$0.69	6.5%

Sealed pack resale

Last $6.00 · 2y ago4 sales

Pack price

—

No retail price

Actual EV

$0.20

Net −$4.80 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 97% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $5.00 ask

Value ratio

0.04x

-96.0% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 97% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $5.00 ask

FMV coverage

—

Depletion

97%

of all minted packs · as of 3d ago

Packs remaining

328

of 11,108 minted · as of 3d ago

EV is odds-corrected — tiers valued by median FMV and weighted by published pack odds (a robust cross-check of the headline supply-weighted EV, resistant to per-edition FMV outliers).

Packs Content Remaining

pool

3.0%unopened

328 / 11,108 packs

Top chases

highest-FMV pulls in this pack

Player	Set	Tier	Drop %	FMV	Edition EV
Saquon Barkley	Base	COMMON	2.50%	$1.00	$0.03
Julio Jones	Base	COMMON	2.50%	$0.69	$0.02
Adrian Peterson	Base	COMMON	2.50%	$0.65	$0.02
Andy Dalton	Base	COMMON	2.50%	$0.48	$0.01
Jonathan Taylor	Base	COMMON	2.50%	$0.32	$0.01
Albert Okwuegbunam	Base	COMMON	2.50%	$0.30	$0.01
D'Andre Swift	Base	COMMON	2.50%	$0.29	$0.01
Drake London	Base	COMMON	2.50%	$0.29	$0.01
Tyler Higbee	Base	COMMON	2.50%	$0.29	$0.01
Mo Alie-Cox	Base	COMMON	2.50%	$0.25	$0.01

Playbook: One-Star Reward (Series 2, Week 6)

What drives the remaining EV

Packs Content Remaining

Top chases

What's Inside

Sales History

Top pulls by EV

What drives the remaining EV

Sales History

Top pulls by EV