2025 Divisional Round Uncommon Reward - Kyle Monangai

Standard

Value still sealed≈ $8.10/pack▼ 42% below the $14.00 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 94% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $14.00 ask

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$14.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

complete open history

Moments pulled

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$543

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$8.10

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

still unopened

Opened share

94%

of all minted packs

EV reality check

Modeled $8.10/packvs realized $8.10 avg · $8.10 median(1.00×)

Model tracks actual pulls · 82 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Kyle Monangai · Playoff (Parallel)	UNCOMMON	100.00%	$8.10	100.0%

EV share = pull odds × FMV ÷ per-slot EV, over the editions remaining in the pool.

Pack price

—

No retail price

Actual EV

$8.10

Net −$5.90 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 94% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $14.00 ask

Value ratio

0.58x

-42.1% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 94% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $14.00 ask

FMV coverage

—

Depletion

94%

of all minted packs · as of 130d ago

Packs remaining

of 87 minted · as of 130d ago

EV is odds-corrected — tiers valued by median FMV and weighted by circulation share (a robust cross-check of the headline supply-weighted EV, resistant to per-edition FMV outliers).