Sam Darnold's Pro Bowl Rare Moment

Rare

Value still sealed≈ $4.00/pack▼ 88% below the $34.00 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 99% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $34.00 ask

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$34.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

192

complete open history

Moments pulled

192

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$511

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$3.90

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

still unopened

Opened share

99%

of all minted packs

EV reality check

Modeled $4.00/packvs realized $3.90 avg · $4.00 median(0.97×)

Model tracks actual pulls · 192 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Sam Darnold · Pro Bowl	RARE	100.00%	$4.00	100.0%

EV share = pull odds × FMV ÷ per-slot EV, over the editions remaining in the pool.

Sealed pack resale

Last $29.00 · 9mo ago1 sale

Pack price

—

No retail price

Actual EV

$4.00

Net −$30.00 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 99% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $34.00 ask

Value ratio

0.12x

-88.2% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 99% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $34.00 ask

FMV coverage

—

Depletion

99%

of all minted packs · as of 66d ago

Packs remaining

of 194 minted · as of 66d ago

EV is odds-corrected — tiers valued by median FMV and weighted by circulation share (a robust cross-check of the headline supply-weighted EV, resistant to per-edition FMV outliers).