Matthew Stafford's Pro Bowl Uncommon Moment

Standard

Value still sealed≈ $0.85/pack▼ 79% below the $4.00 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 96% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $4.00 ask

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$4.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

348

complete open history

Moments pulled

348

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$182

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$0.85

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

still unopened

Opened share

96%

of all minted packs

EV reality check

Modeled $0.85/packvs realized $0.85 avg · $0.85 median(1.00×)

Model tracks actual pulls · 348 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Matthew Stafford · Pro Bowl	UNCOMMON	100.00%	$0.85	100.0%

EV share = pull odds × FMV ÷ per-slot EV, over the editions remaining in the pool.

Sealed pack resale

Last $4.00 · 9mo ago5 sales

Pack price

—

No retail price

Actual EV

$0.85

Net −$3.15 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 96% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $4.00 ask

Value ratio

0.21x

-78.8% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 96% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $4.00 ask

FMV coverage

—

Depletion

96%

of all minted packs · as of 129d ago

Packs remaining

of 363 minted · as of 129d ago

EV is odds-corrected — tiers valued by median FMV and weighted by circulation share (a robust cross-check of the headline supply-weighted EV, resistant to per-edition FMV outliers).