De'Von Achane's Pro Bowl Uncommon Moment

Standard

Value still sealed≈ $1.50/pack▼ 79% below the $7.00 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 98% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $7.00 ask

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$7.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

239

complete open history

Moments pulled

239

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$182

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$1.57

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

still unopened

Opened share

98%

of all minted packs

EV reality check

Modeled $1.50/packvs realized $1.57 avg · $1.50 median(1.05×)

Model tracks actual pulls · 239 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
De'Von Achane · Pro Bowl	UNCOMMON	100.00%	$1.50	100.0%

EV share = pull odds × FMV ÷ per-slot EV, over the editions remaining in the pool.

Sealed pack resale

Last $7.00 · 9mo ago2 sales

Pack price

—

No retail price

Actual EV

$1.50

Net −$5.50 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 98% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $7.00 ask

Value ratio

0.21x

-78.6% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 98% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $7.00 ask

FMV coverage

—

Depletion

98%

of all minted packs · as of 129d ago

Packs remaining

of 245 minted · as of 129d ago

EV is odds-corrected — tiers valued by median FMV and weighted by circulation share (a robust cross-check of the headline supply-weighted EV, resistant to per-edition FMV outliers).