Jaxon Smith-Njigba's Pro Bowl Uncommon Moment

Standard

Value still sealed≈ $2.70/pack▼ 87% below the $21.00 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 98% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $21.00 ask

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$21.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

287

complete open history

Moments pulled

287

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$303

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$2.73

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

still unopened

Opened share

98%

of all minted packs

EV reality check

Modeled $2.70/packvs realized $2.73 avg · $2.70 median(1.01×)

Model tracks actual pulls · 287 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Jaxon Smith-Njigba · Pro Bowl	UNCOMMON	100.00%	$2.70	100.0%

EV share = pull odds × FMV ÷ per-slot EV, over the editions remaining in the pool.

Sealed pack resale

Last $15.00 · 9mo ago4 sales

Pack price

—

No retail price

Actual EV

$2.70

Net −$18.30 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 98% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $21.00 ask

Value ratio

0.13x

-87.1% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 98% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $21.00 ask

FMV coverage

—

Depletion

98%

of all minted packs · as of 130d ago

Packs remaining

of 293 minted · as of 130d ago

EV is odds-corrected — tiers valued by median FMV and weighted by circulation share (a robust cross-check of the headline supply-weighted EV, resistant to per-edition FMV outliers).