James Cook's Pro Bowl Uncommon Moment

Standard

Value still sealed≈ $1.00/pack▼ 66% below the $2.95 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 98% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $2.95 ask

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$2.95] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

247

complete open history

Moments pulled

247

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$102

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$1.00

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

still unopened

Opened share

98%

of all minted packs

EV reality check

Modeled $1.00/packvs realized $1.00 avg · $1.00 median(1.00×)

Model tracks actual pulls · 247 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
James Cook · Pro Bowl	UNCOMMON	100.00%	$1.00	100.0%

EV share = pull odds × FMV ÷ per-slot EV, over the editions remaining in the pool.

Sealed pack resale

Last $4.00 · 9mo ago1 sale

Pack price

—

No retail price

Actual EV

$1.00

Net −$1.95 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 98% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $2.95 ask

Value ratio

0.34x

-66.1% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 98% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $2.95 ask

FMV coverage

—

Depletion

98%

of all minted packs · as of 129d ago

Packs remaining

of 251 minted · as of 129d ago

EV is odds-corrected — tiers valued by median FMV and weighted by circulation share (a robust cross-check of the headline supply-weighted EV, resistant to per-edition FMV outliers). ~100% of pack value rests on sparse or missing sales data.