Drake Maye's Pro Bowl Uncommon Moment

Standard

Value still sealed≈ $0.85/pack▼ 97% below the $24.90 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 95% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $24.90 ask

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$24.90] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

143

complete open history

Moments pulled

143

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$284

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$2.51

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

still unopened

Opened share

95%

of all minted packs

EV reality check

Modeled $0.85/packvs realized $2.51 avg · $2.50 median(2.95×)

Model under-values vs actual pulls · 143 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Drake Maye · Pro Bowl	UNCOMMON	100.00%	$0.85	100.0%

EV share = pull odds × FMV ÷ per-slot EV, over the editions remaining in the pool.

Sealed pack resale

Median $10.00 (90d)Last $10.00 · 2mo ago3 sales · 1 in 90d

Pack price

—

No retail price

Actual EV

$0.85

Net −$24.05 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 95% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $24.90 ask

Value ratio

0.03x

-96.6% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 95% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $24.90 ask

FMV coverage

—

Depletion

95%

of all minted packs · as of 53d ago

Packs remaining

of 151 minted · as of 53d ago

EV is odds-corrected — tiers valued by median FMV and weighted by circulation share (a robust cross-check of the headline supply-weighted EV, resistant to per-edition FMV outliers).