Draw it Up: Devon Witherspoon (2023 Season)

Standard

Value still sealed≈ $0.29/pack▼ 98% below the $15.00 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 97% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $15.00 ask

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$15.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

585

complete open history

Moments pulled

585

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$3.09

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$0.77

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

still unopened

Opened share

97%

of all minted packs

EV reality check

Modeled $0.29/packvs realized $0.77 avg · $0.80 median(2.65×)

Model under-values vs actual pulls · 585 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Devon Witherspoon · Draw it Up	UNCOMMON	100.00%	$0.29	100.0%

EV share = pull odds × FMV ÷ per-slot EV, over the editions remaining in the pool.

Sealed pack resale

Last $3.00 · 1y ago22 sales

Pack price

—

No retail price

Actual EV

$0.29

Net −$14.71 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 97% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $15.00 ask

Value ratio

0.02x

-98.1% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 97% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $15.00 ask

FMV coverage

—

Depletion

97%

of all minted packs · as of 129d ago

Packs remaining

of 602 minted · as of 129d ago

EV is odds-corrected — tiers valued by median FMV and weighted by circulation share (a robust cross-check of the headline supply-weighted EV, resistant to per-edition FMV outliers).