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NFL All Day · Pack #88

Playbook: Four-Star Reward (Series 2, Week 8)

Standard3 slots

Value still sealed≈ $1.50/pack▼ 99% below the $150 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 100% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $150 ask

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$150] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

1,300

complete open history

Moments pulled

3,900

from opened packs

Realized pull value

—

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

—

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

still unopened

Opened share

100%

of all minted packs

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Saquon Barkley · Base	COMMON	2.83%	$1.00	8.5%
Jalen Hurts · Base	COMMON	2.83%	$1.00	8.5%
Christian McCaffrey · Base	COMMON	2.83%	$1.00	8.5%

EV share = pull odds × FMV ÷ per-slot EV, over the editions remaining in the pool.

Pack price

—

No retail price

Actual EV

$1.50

Net −$149 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 100% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $150 ask

Value ratio

0.01x

-99.0% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 100% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $150 ask

FMV coverage

—

Depletion

100%

of all minted packs · as of 129d ago

Packs remaining

of 1,306 minted · as of 129d ago

EV is odds-corrected — tiers valued by median FMV and weighted by published pack odds (a robust cross-check of the headline supply-weighted EV, resistant to per-edition FMV outliers).

Packs Content Remaining

pool

0.5%unopened

6 / 1,306 packs

Top chases

highest-FMV pulls in this pack

RareHit 0.25%

Kaiir Elam

Ball Hawk

Player	Set	Tier	Drop %	FMV	Edition EV
Jalen Hurts	Base	COMMON	2.83%	$1.00	$0.08
Christian McCaffrey	Base	COMMON	2.83%	$1.00	$0.08
Saquon Barkley	Base	COMMON	2.83%	$1.00	$0.08
Russell Wilson	Base	COMMON	2.83%	$0.80	$0.07
Cincinnati Bengals	Make the Stop	COMMON	1.98%	$0.99	$0.06
Julio Jones	Base	COMMON	2.83%	$0.69	$0.06
Trevor Lawrence	Base	COMMON	2.83%	$0.62	$0.05
Drake London	Base	COMMON	2.83%	$0.29	$0.02
Garrett Wilson	Base	COMMON	2.83%	$0.28	$0.02
Cordarrelle Patterson	Move the Chains	COMMON	2.26%	$0.33	$0.02

Playbook: Four-Star Reward (Series 2, Week 8)

What drives the remaining EV

Packs Content Remaining

Top chases

What's Inside

Sales History

Top pulls by EV

What drives the remaining EV

Sales History

Top pulls by EV