Collect Playbook - Week 15 - 50 Yards (Playbook Reward)

Standard

Value still sealed≈ $0.25/pack▼ 99% below the $29.00 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 97% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $29.00 ask

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$29.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

657

complete open history

Moments pulled

657

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$0.44

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$0.44

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

still unopened

Opened share

97%

of all minted packs

EV reality check

Modeled $0.25/packvs realized $0.44 avg · $0.44 median(1.76×)

Model under-values vs actual pulls · 657 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Rashan Gary · Road to 100	UNCOMMON	100.00%	$0.25	100.0%

EV share = pull odds × FMV ÷ per-slot EV, over the editions remaining in the pool.

Sealed pack resale

Last $4.00 · 3y ago22 sales

Pack price

—

No retail price

Actual EV

$0.25

Net −$28.75 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 97% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $29.00 ask

Value ratio

0.01x

-99.1% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 97% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $29.00 ask

FMV coverage

—

Depletion

97%

of all minted packs · as of 37d ago

Packs remaining

of 676 minted · as of 37d ago

EV is odds-corrected — tiers valued by median FMV and weighted by circulation share (a robust cross-check of the headline supply-weighted EV, resistant to per-edition FMV outliers).