What's your collection worth?Free, no signup. Total FMV + your top moments.

NBA Top Shot · Pack #1474

2024 NBA Finals Quick Rip

Name: 2024 NBA Finals Quick Rip
Brand: NBA Top Shot
Price: 10 USD

Common6 slots

Buy on secondary market Buy on Dapper →← All packs

Value still sealed≈ $2.21/pack▼ 63% below the $6.00 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 84% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $6.00 askTypical pull ≈ $1.20 · grail premium $1.01 (lottery-shaped)

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$6.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

5,049

attributed rips · sample

Moments pulled

30,294

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$159

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$2.30

per pack we could price

EV reality check

Modeled $2.21/packvs realized $1.65 avg · $1.62 median · $2.01 p90(0.75×)

Model tracks actual pulls · 19 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Gui Santos · Rookie Debut	COMMON	1.65%	$0.90	4.0%
Javon Freeman-Liberty · Rookie Debut	COMMON	1.60%	$0.63	2.7%
Victor Wembanyama

Sealed pack resale

Median $6.00 (90d)Last $5.99 · 18d agoRetail $6.005,258 sales · 5 in 90d

trades ~1.00× retail

Pack price

PrimarySOLD OUT

Secondary$6.00

Actual EV

$2.21

Net −$3.79 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 84% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $6.00 ask

Typical Pull

$1.20

Grail premium $1.01 — lottery-shaped

Value ratio

0.37x

-63.2% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 84% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $6.00 ask

FMV coverage

100%

366 editions

Depletion

84%

pool · as of 2d ago

Packs remaining

2,361

of 14,811 minted · as of 2d ago

Packs Content Remaining

pool · as of 2d ago

16%unopened

2,361 / 14,811 packs

Legendary1 / 15 (6.7%)

0.04 per 100 sealed packs · launch 0.10 · 0.4× launch rate

Rare224 / 1,478 (15%)

9.5 per 100 sealed packs · launch 10.0 · ≈ launch rate

Common13,941 / 87,373 (16%)

Pull odds by tier

6 slots/pack · as of 2d ago

Tier	Remaining	% of pool	Odds / pack
Legendary	1 / 15	<0.1%	~1 in 2,361
Rare	224 / 1,478	1.6%	~1 in 11
Common	13,941 / 87,373	98%	~every pack

Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 6 slots, from the remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).

Top chases

highest-FMV pulls in this pack

Portland Trail Blazers

Squad Goals

$5.00

What's Inside

FMV priced 366 of 366 (100%)

Sorted among the 24 loaded editions · load more to sort the rest

Buyer	Sale price	When
@AJ_One	$7.00	125d ago
@Cheitib78	$6.00	46d ago
@Cheitib78	$6.00	73d ago
@Cheitib78	$6.00	78d ago
@Cheitib78	$6.00	99d ago
@jmacattack	$6.00	154d ago
@NolaTom	$6.00	158d ago
@NolaTom	$6.00	160d ago
@NolaTom	$6.00	161d ago
@NolaTom	$6.00	161d ago

Buyer	Sale price	When
@Quintenchen	$5.99	18d ago
@Chrisballgame	$5.50	25d ago
@Cheitib78	$6.00	46d ago
@Cheitib78	$6.00

Player	Set	Tier	Drop %	FMV	Edition EV
Gui Santos	Rookie Debut	COMMON	0.00%	$0.90	<$0.01
Javon Freeman-Liberty	Rookie Debut	COMMON	0.00%	$0.63	<$0.01

2024 NBA Finals Quick Rip

What drives the remaining EV

Packs Content Remaining

Pull odds by tier

Top chases

What's Inside

Sales History

Top pulls by EV

Sales History

Top pulls by EV

What drives the remaining EV