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NBA Top Shot · Pack #1568

Run It Back: Quick Rip August

Name: Run It Back: Quick Rip August
Brand: NBA Top Shot
Price: 5 USD

Common3 slots

Buy on secondary market Buy on Dapper →← All packs

Value still sealed≈ $1.37/pack▼ 80% below the $6.95 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 87% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $6.95 askTypical pull ≈ $0.63 · grail premium $0.74 (lottery-shaped)

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$6.95] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

6,521

attributed rips · sample

Moments pulled

19,563

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$55.66

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$1.33

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

still unopened

EV reality check

Modeled $1.37/packvs realized $1.35 avg · $0.85 median · $2.86 p90(0.98×)

Model tracks actual pulls · 24 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Shawn Bradley · Run It Back	RARE	0.52%	$5.88	6.6%
Chris Paul · Run It Back	RARE	0.59%	$5.00	6.4%
Dwight Howard

Sealed pack resale

Median $6.69 (90d)Last $6.69 · 11d agoRetail $6.956,260 sales · 1 in 90d

trades ~0.96× retail

Pack price

PrimarySOLD OUT

Secondary$6.95

Actual EV

$1.37

Net −$5.58 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 87% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $6.95 ask

Typical Pull

$0.63

Grail premium $0.74 — lottery-shaped

Value ratio

0.20x

-80.3% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 87% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $6.95 ask

FMV coverage

100%

1259 editions

Depletion

87%

pool · as of 2d ago

Packs remaining

2,388

of 19,084 minted · as of 2d ago

Packs Content Remaining

pool · as of 2d ago

13%unopened

2,388 / 19,084 packs

Legendary5 / 50 (10%)

0.21 per 100 sealed packs · launch 0.26 · 0.8× launch rate

Rare230 / 1,839 (13%)

9.6 per 100 sealed packs · launch 9.6 · ≈ launch rate

Common6,929 / 55,363 (13%)

Pull odds by tier

3 slots/pack · as of 2d ago

Tier	Remaining	% of pool	Odds / pack
Legendary	5 / 50	<0.1%	~1 in 478
Rare	230 / 1,839	3.2%	~1 in 11
Common	6,929 / 55,363	97%	~every pack

Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 3 slots, from the remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).

Top chases

highest-FMV pulls in this pack

LegendaryHit 0.01%

Chris Mullin

Run It Back: Legacies

$68.00

LegendaryHit 0.01%

Scott Skiles

Run It Back: Legacies

$51.00

LegendaryHit 0.04%

Tim Hardaway

Run It Back: Legacies

What's Inside

FMV priced 1,259 of 1259 (100%)

Sorted among the 24 loaded editions · load more to sort the rest

Buyer	Sale price	When
@Timmurrsss	$7.00	116d ago
@Cheitib78	$7.00	150d ago
@Quintenchen	$7.00	187d ago
@djtrent	$6.69	11d ago
@Quintenchen	$6.00	124d ago
@Quintenchen	$6.00	151d ago
@Quintenchen	$5.00	141d ago
@Quintenchen	$5.00	141d ago
@Quintenchen	$5.00	141d ago
@Quintenchen	$5.00	141d ago

Player	Set	Tier	Drop %	FMV	Edition EV
Shawn Bradley	Run It Back	RARE	0.00%	$5.88	<$0.01
Chris Paul	Run It Back	RARE	0.00%	$5.00	<$0.01

Run It Back: Quick Rip August

What drives the remaining EV

Packs Content Remaining

Pull odds by tier

Top chases

What's Inside

Sales History

Top pulls by EV

Sales History

Top pulls by EV

What drives the remaining EV