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NBA Top Shot · Pack #4002
Run It Back: Origins October
Rare2 slots
Pack price
PrimarySOLD OUT
Secondary$42.00
Actual EV
—
≈ $10.01 ceiling · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 95% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $42.00 ask
Typical Pull
$8.00
Grail premium $2.01 — lottery-shaped
Value ratio
—
EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 95% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $42.00 ask
FMV coverage
100%
85 editions
Depletion
95%
pool · as of 12h ago
Packs remaining
229
of 4,520 minted · as of 12h ago
Packs Content Remaining
pool · as of 12h ago5.1%unopened
Legendary5 / 110 (4.5%)
2.2 per 100 sealed packs · launch 2.4 · 0.9× launch rate
Rare267 / 5,431 (4.9%)
117 per 100 sealed packs · launch 120 · ≈ launch rate
Common186 / 3,499 (5.3%)
Pull odds by tier
2 slots/pack · as of 12h ago| Tier | Remaining | % of pool | Odds / pack |
|---|---|---|---|
| Legendary | 5 / 110 | 1.1% | ~1 in 46 |
| Rare | 267 / 5,431 | 58% | ~1 in 1 |
| Common | 186 / 3,499 | 41% | ~1 in 2 |
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 2 slots, from the remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).
Top chases
highest-FMV pulls in this pack
What's Inside
FMV priced 85 of 85 (100%)Sorted among the 24 loaded editions · load more to sort the rest
Shawn Kemp
Dunk · Apr 30, 1992
Run It Back: Legacies
LEGENDARYSeries 2023-24
FMV
$130
Recent Low
$115
Mint 75
Hit 0.22%Wt 0.002
Dražen Petrović
Handles · Jan 25, 1993
Run It Back: Legacies
LEGENDARYSeries 2023-24
FMV
$100
Recent Low
$70.00
Mint 75
Hit 0.44%Wt 0.004
Clyde Drexler
Dunk · May 22, 1995
Run It Back: Legacies
LEGENDARYSeries 2023-24
FMV
$70.00
Recent Low
$100
Mint 75
Hit 0.44%Wt 0.004
Sam Perkins
Dunk · Apr 19, 1985
Run It Back: Origins
RARESeries 2023-24
FMV
$16.00
Recent Low
$7.00
Mint 399
Hit 3.06%Wt 0.031
Dee Brown
Dunk · Feb 9, 1991
Run It Back: Origins
RARESeries 2023-24
FMV
$11.00
Recent Low
$8.00
Mint 399
Hit 3.06%Wt 0.031
Vlade Divac
Block · Feb 3, 1990
Run It Back: Origins
RARESeries 2023-24
FMV
$9.00
Recent Low
$8.00
Mint 399
Hit 2.40%Wt 0.024
Sam Cassell
3 Pointer · Jun 12, 1994
Run It Back: Origins
RARESeries 2023-24
FMV
$8.00
Recent Low
$8.00
Mint 399
Hit 3.06%Wt 0.031
Mitch Richmond
Dunk · May 2, 1989
Run It Back: Origins
RARESeries 2023-24
FMV
$8.00
Recent Low
$6.00
Mint 399
Hit 2.40%Wt 0.024
Zydrunas Ilgauskas
Handles · Nov 23, 1997
Run It Back: Origins
RARESeries 2023-24
FMV
$7.50
Recent Low
$5.00
Mint 399
Hit 1.75%Wt 0.017
Kevin Love
Assist · Jan 26, 2009
Run It Back: Origins
RARESeries 2023-24
FMV
$7.00
Recent Low
$5.00
Mint 399
Hit 3.06%Wt 0.031
Caron Butler
Dunk · Oct 31, 2002
Run It Back: Origins
RARESeries 2023-24
FMV
$7.00
Recent Low
$5.00
Mint 399
Hit 2.84%Wt 0.028
Gus Williams
Dunk · May 20, 1979
Run It Back
RARESeries 2023-24
FMV
$6.24
Recent Low
$6.00
Mint 699
Hit 3.49%Wt 0.035
Carlos Boozer
Dunk · Mar 26, 2007
Run It Back
RARESeries 2023-24
FMV
$6.00
Recent Low
$5.00
Mint 699
Hit 3.49%Wt 0.035
Kenyon Martin
Dunk · Mar 5, 2001
Run It Back: Origins
RARESeries 2023-24
FMV
$6.00
Recent Low
$5.00
Mint 399
Hit 2.84%Wt 0.028
Kyle Lowry
Layup · Nov 21, 2006
Run It Back: Origins
RARESeries 2023-24
FMV
$6.00
Recent Low
$5.00
Mint 399
Hit 2.84%Wt 0.028
Cedric Ceballos
Dunk · Jan 31, 1996
Run It Back
RARESeries 2023-24
FMV
$5.00
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 699
Hit 4.37%Wt 0.044
Isaiah Rider
Dunk · Mar 23, 1995
Run It Back
RARESeries 2023-24
FMV
$5.00
Recent Low
$5.00
Mint 699
Hit 2.84%Wt 0.028
Metta World Peace
Dunk · Feb 3, 2008
Run It Back
RARESeries 2023-24
FMV
$5.00
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 699
Hit 1.97%Wt 0.02
Robert Pack
Dunk · Jan 26, 1993
Run It Back
RARESeries 2023-24
FMV
$4.00
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 699
Hit 3.93%Wt 0.039
Tyson Chandler
Dunk · May 5, 2008
Run It Back
RARESeries 2023-24
FMV
$4.00
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 699
Hit 3.06%Wt 0.031
Amar'e Stoudemire
Dunk · Mar 28, 2010
Run It Back
RARESeries 2023-24
FMV
$4.00
Recent Low
$2.00
Mint 699
Hit 2.84%Wt 0.028
Michael Finley
Dunk · Feb 21, 2001
Run It Back
RARESeries 2023-24
FMV
$4.00
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 699
Hit 2.62%Wt 0.026
Clifford Robinson
Dunk · Dec 7, 1991
Run It Back
RARESeries 2023-24
FMV
$4.00
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 699
Hit 2.40%Wt 0.024
Elfrid Payton
Assist · Jan 15, 2015
Archive Set
COMMONSeries 2023-24
FMV
$0.40
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 4,500
Hit 3.71%Wt 0.037