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NBA Top Shot · Pack #4016
Rookie Debut 2024
Common5 slots
Pack price
PrimarySOLD OUT
Secondary$50.00
Actual EV
—
≈ $23.73 ceiling · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 94% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $50.00 ask
Typical Pull
$10.90
Grail premium $12.83 — lottery-shaped
Value ratio
—
EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 94% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $50.00 ask
FMV coverage
100%
32 editions
Depletion
94%
pool · as of 1d ago
Packs remaining
429
of 7,009 minted · as of 1d ago
Packs Content Remaining
pool · as of 1d ago6.1%unopened
Ultimate0 / 2 (0.0%)
0 per 100 sealed packs · launch 0.03
Legendary2 / 17 (12%)
0.47 per 100 sealed packs · launch 0.24 · 1.9× launch rate
Rare1 / 82 (1.2%)
0.23 per 100 sealed packs · launch 1.2 · 0.2× launch rate
Common2,142 / 34,944 (6.1%)
Pull odds by tier
5 slots/pack · as of 1d ago| Tier | Remaining | % of pool | Odds / pack |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ultimate | 0 / 2 | 0.0% | depleted |
| Legendary | 2 / 17 | <0.1% | ~1 in 215 |
| Rare | 1 / 82 | <0.1% | ~1 in 429 |
| Common | 2,142 / 34,944 | 100% | ~every pack |
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 5 slots, from the remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).
Top chases
highest-FMV pulls in this packWhat's Inside
FMV priced 32 of 32 (100%)Sorted among the 24 loaded editions · load more to sort the rest
Victor Wembanyama
Reel · Feb 24, 2024
Rookie Revelation
LEGENDARYSeries 2023-24
FMV
$2,700
Recent Low
$3,000
Mint 75
Hit 0.05%Wt 0
Brandon Miller
Block · Feb 8, 2024
Rookie Revelation
LEGENDARYSeries 2023-24
FMV
$178
Recent Low
$155
Mint 75
Hit 0.05%Wt 0
Chet Holmgren
Dunk · Dec 22, 2023
Freshman Gems
RARESeries 2023-24
FMV
$60.00
Recent Low
$80.00
Mint 199
Hit 0.05%Wt 0
Ja Morant
Dunk · Dec 12, 2019
Base Set
COMMONSeries 1
FMV
$59.00
Recent Low
$58.00
Mint 1,000
Hit 0.05%Wt 0
Stephon Castle
Jump Shot · Oct 24, 2024
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$16.00
Recent Low
$11.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 6.01%Wt 0.06
Brandon Miller
3 Pointer · Oct 25, 2023
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 2023-24
FMV
$9.79
Recent Low
$7.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 0.05%Wt 0
Alexandre Sarr
Dunk · Oct 24, 2024
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$8.00
Recent Low
$7.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 6.57%Wt 0.066
Keyonte George
Layup · Oct 26, 2023
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 2023-24
FMV
$8.00
Recent Low
$6.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 0.19%Wt 0.002
Kel'el Ware
Jump Shot · Nov 3, 2024
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$5.00
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 5.45%Wt 0.055
Donovan Clingan
Layup · Oct 24, 2024
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$5.00
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 4.71%Wt 0.047
Zaccharie Risacher
3 Pointer · Oct 23, 2024
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$3.50
Recent Low
$2.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 5.92%Wt 0.059
Matas Buzelis
Assist · Oct 24, 2024
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$3.00
Recent Low
$2.99
Mint 4,000
Hit 4.94%Wt 0.049
Zach Edey
Layup · Oct 24, 2024
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$3.00
Recent Low
$2.99
Mint 4,000
Hit 4.85%Wt 0.048
Reed Sheppard
Jump Shot · Oct 24, 2024
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$2.45
Recent Low
$2.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 7.13%Wt 0.071
Tristan da Silva
Layup · Nov 1, 2024
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$2.18
Recent Low
$1.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 4.66%Wt 0.047
Jared McCain
Jump Shot · Oct 23, 2024
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$2.00
Recent Low
$1.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 4.99%Wt 0.05
Bronny James
Jump Shot · Oct 30, 2024
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$1.88
Recent Low
$1.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 5.17%Wt 0.052
Carlton Carrington
Jump Shot · Oct 24, 2024
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$1.69
Recent Low
$1.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 4.62%Wt 0.046
Isaiah Collier
Assist · Nov 8, 2024
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$1.00
Recent Low
$1.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 4.94%Wt 0.049
Cody Williams
Layup · Oct 26, 2024
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$1.00
Recent Low
$0.98
Mint 4,000
Hit 4.48%Wt 0.045
Dalton Knecht
3 Pointer · Oct 23, 2024
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.80
Recent Low
$0.50
Mint 4,000
Hit 5.41%Wt 0.054
Ronald Holland II
Layup · Oct 23, 2024
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.70
Recent Low
$0.79
Mint 4,000
Hit 6.95%Wt 0.069
Tidjane Salaün
Steal · Oct 26, 2024
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.65
Recent Low
$0.23
Mint 4,000
Hit 6.99%Wt 0.07
Rob Dillingham
Assist · Nov 3, 2024
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.58
Recent Low
$0.50
Mint 4,000
Hit 5.17%Wt 0.052
