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NBA Top Shot · Pack #4039
Fast Break - Rookie Pack
Common
Pack price
PrimarySOLD OUT
Secondary$8.55
Actual EV
—
≈ $2.92 ceiling · EV inflated by survivor bias (95% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $8.55
Typical Pull
$1.93
Grail premium $0.99 — lottery-shaped
Value ratio
—
EV inflated by survivor bias (95% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $8.55
FMV coverage
100%
18 editions
Depletion
95%
live pool
Packs remaining
89
of 1,800 minted
Packs Content Remaining
live pool · as of 13h ago4.9%unopened
Common89 / 1,800 (4.9%)
Pull odds by tier
per pack · as of 13h ago| Tier | Remaining | % of pool | Odds / pack |
|---|---|---|---|
| Common | 89 / 1,800 | 100% | — |
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across the slots, from the live remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).
Top chases
highest-FMV pulls in this pack
What's Inside
FMV priced 18 of 18 (100%)Stephon Castle
Rookie Debut
COMMON7
FMV
$13.42
Floor
$12.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 2.25%Wt 0.022
Alexandre Sarr
Rookie Debut
COMMON7
FMV
$8.03
Floor
$7.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 10.11%Wt 0.101
Kel'el Ware
Rookie Debut
COMMON7
FMV
$4.34
Floor
$4.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 8.99%Wt 0.09
Donovan Clingan
Rookie Debut
COMMON7
FMV
$4.04
Floor
$3.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 7.87%Wt 0.079
Matas Buzelis
Rookie Debut
COMMON7
FMV
$3.97
Floor
$3.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 2.25%Wt 0.022
Reed Sheppard
Rookie Debut
COMMON7
FMV
$3.49
Floor
$2.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 2.25%Wt 0.022
Zach Edey
Rookie Debut
COMMON7
FMV
$2.76
Floor
$2.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 4.49%Wt 0.045
Bronny James
Rookie Debut
COMMON7
FMV
$2.32
Floor
$1.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 3.37%Wt 0.034
Jared McCain
Rookie Debut
COMMON7
FMV
$2.11
Floor
$2.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 5.62%Wt 0.056
Tristan da Silva
Rookie Debut
COMMON7
FMV
$1.93
Floor
$1.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 4.49%Wt 0.045
Zaccharie Risacher
Rookie Debut
COMMON7
FMV
$1.76
Floor
$1.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 5.62%Wt 0.056
Dalton Knecht
Rookie Debut
COMMON7
FMV
$1.39
Floor
$0.50
Mint 4,000
Hit 6.74%Wt 0.067
Isaiah Collier
Rookie Debut
COMMON7
FMV
$1.19
Floor
$1.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 1.12%Wt 0.011
Carlton Carrington
Rookie Debut
COMMON7
FMV
$1.02
Floor
$1.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 5.62%Wt 0.056
Cody Williams
Rookie Debut
COMMON7
FMV
$1.00
Floor
$1.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 10.11%Wt 0.101
Ronald Holland II
Rookie Debut
COMMON7
FMV
$0.99
Floor
$0.98
Mint 4,000
Hit 6.74%Wt 0.067
Rob Dillingham
Rookie Debut
COMMON7
FMV
$0.64
Floor
$0.41
Mint 4,000
Hit 5.62%Wt 0.056
Tidjane Salaün
Rookie Debut
COMMON7
FMV
$0.62
Floor
$0.47
Mint 4,000
Hit 6.74%Wt 0.067