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NBA Top Shot · Pack #4085
Fresh Threads 2024-25
Common5 slots
Pack price
PrimarySOLD OUT
Secondary$29.00
Actual EV
—
≈ $12.03 ceiling · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 97% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $29.00 ask
Typical Pull
$1.20
Grail premium $10.83 — lottery-shaped
Value ratio
—
EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 97% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $29.00 ask
FMV coverage
100%
207 editions
Depletion
97%
pool · as of 49m ago
Packs remaining
103
of 3,849 minted · as of 49m ago
Packs Content Remaining
pool · as of 49m ago2.7%unopened
Ultimate0 / 1 (0.0%)
0 per 100 sealed packs · launch 0.03
Legendary0 / 37 (0.0%)
0 per 100 sealed packs · launch 0.96
Rare99 / 3,662 (2.7%)
96 per 100 sealed packs · launch 95 · ≈ launch rate
Common416 / 15,545 (2.7%)
Pull odds by tier
5 slots/pack · as of 49m ago| Tier | Remaining | % of pool | Odds / pack |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ultimate | 0 / 1 | 0.0% | depleted |
| Legendary | 0 / 37 | 0.0% | depleted |
| Rare | 99 / 3,662 | 19% | ~1 in 2 |
| Common | 416 / 15,545 | 81% | ~every pack |
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 5 slots, from the remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).
Top chases
highest-FMV pulls in this pack
What's Inside
FMV priced 207 of 207 (100%)Sorted among the 24 loaded editions · load more to sort the rest
Karl-Anthony Towns
Hook Shot · Oct 22, 2024
Fresh Threads
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$26.00
Recent Low
$6.00
Mint 499
Hit 2.33%Wt 0.023
Deni Avdija
Layup · Oct 24, 2024
Fresh Threads
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$23.00
Recent Low
$5.00
Mint 499
Hit 1.16%Wt 0.012
Julius Randle
3 Pointer · Oct 23, 2024
Fresh Threads
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$16.50
Recent Low
$5.00
Mint 499
Hit 1.16%Wt 0.012
Deni Avdija
Dunk · Apr 5, 2021
Metallic Gold LE
RARESeries 2
FMV
$16.00
Recent Low
$14.00
Mint 499
Hit 0.19%Wt 0.002
Dyson Daniels
Layup · Oct 23, 2024
Fresh Threads
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$15.00
Recent Low
$0.55
Mint 499
Hit 0.78%Wt 0.008
Dejounte Murray
Assist · Oct 24, 2024
Fresh Threads
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$13.00
Recent Low
$5.00
Mint 499
Hit 1.16%Wt 0.012
Mikal Bridges
3 Pointer · Oct 22, 2024
Fresh Threads
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$12.00
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 499
Hit 1.16%Wt 0.012
Lauri Markkanen
Assist · Oct 20, 2022
Fresh Threads
RARESeries 4
FMV
$11.66
Recent Low
$6.00
Mint 425
Hit 0.19%Wt 0.002
Derrick Jones Jr.
Dunk · Oct 24, 2024
Fresh Threads
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$7.69
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 499
Hit 1.75%Wt 0.017
Deni Avdija
3 Pointer · Dec 24, 2020
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2
FMV
$7.44
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 0.19%Wt 0.002
DeMar DeRozan
Layup · Oct 25, 2024
Fresh Threads
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$7.00
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 499
Hit 2.33%Wt 0.023
Donte DiVincenzo
Steal · Oct 23, 2024
Fresh Threads
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$5.88
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 499
Hit 1.16%Wt 0.012
Klay Thompson
3 Pointer · Oct 24, 2024
Fresh Threads
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$5.50
Recent Low
$3.99
Mint 499
Hit 0.97%Wt 0.01
Chris Paul
Reel · Dec 11, 2016
Run It Back
RARESeries 2023-24
FMV
$5.00
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 699
Hit 0.19%Wt 0.002
Alex Caruso
Block · Feb 26, 2020
Base Set
COMMONSeries 1
FMV
$4.19
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 1,530
Hit 0.19%Wt 0.002
Alex Caruso
Hustle · Oct 25, 2024
Fresh Threads
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$4.00
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 499
Hit 1.36%Wt 0.014
Chris Paul
Assist · Oct 24, 2024
Fresh Threads
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$4.00
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 499
Hit 1.16%Wt 0.012
Tyus Jones
Steal · Oct 24, 2024
Fresh Threads
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$4.00
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 499
Hit 1.16%Wt 0.012
DeMar DeRozan
Dunk · Jan 12, 2020
Base Set
COMMONSeries 1
FMV
$4.00
Recent Low
$2.00
Mint 2,986
Hit 0.19%Wt 0.002
Buddy Hield
3 Pointer · Oct 24, 2024
Fresh Threads
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$3.00
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 499
Hit 0.97%Wt 0.01
Russell Westbrook
Dunk · Oct 27, 2021
Fresh Threads
COMMONSeries 3
FMV
$0.78
Recent Low
$0.16
Mint 11,111
Hit 0.97%Wt 0.01
DeMar DeRozan
Layup · Oct 25, 2021
Fresh Threads
COMMONSeries 3
FMV
$0.69
Recent Low
$0.16
Mint 11,111
Hit 1.75%Wt 0.017
Patrick Beverley
Assist · Oct 28, 2021
Fresh Threads
COMMONSeries 3
FMV
$0.68
Recent Low
$0.16
Mint 11,111
Hit 2.33%Wt 0.023
Eric Bledsoe
Assist · Oct 22, 2021
Fresh Threads
COMMONSeries 3
FMV
$0.48
Recent Low
$0.16
Mint 11,111
Hit 1.94%Wt 0.019