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NBA Top Shot · Pack #4578

Grail Season

Common

Buy on secondary market Buy on Dapper →← All packs

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$10.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

433

attributed rips · sample

Moments pulled

2,087

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$122

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$4.52

per pack we could price

Realized pull value

Realized $5.24 avg · $6.04 median · $8.73 p90

Realized pull value · 23 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

⚠ 34% of the remaining EV leans on thinly-traded chase prices — treat it as soft.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Carlton Carrington · Freshman Gems	RARE	50.00%	$15.33	65.9%
Isaiah Hartenstein · NBA Cup	RARE	50.00%	$7.92	34.1%

EV share = pull odds × FMV ÷ per-slot EV, over the editions remaining in the pool.

Sealed pack resale

Last $20.00 · 1y agoRetail $10.00427 sales

Pack price

PrimarySOLD OUT

Secondary$10.00

Actual EV

—

≈ — ceiling · EV inflated by survivor bias (98% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $10.00

Value ratio

—

EV inflated by survivor bias (98% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $10.00

FMV coverage

—

0 editions

Depletion

98%

live pool

Packs remaining

112

of 5,000 minted

Packs Content Remaining

live pool · as of 20h ago

2.2%unopened

112 / 5,000 packs

Legendary0 / 13 (0.0%)

Rare3 / 270 (1.1%)

Common557 / 24,717 (2.3%)

Pull odds by tier

per pack · as of 20h ago

Tier	Remaining	% of pool	Odds / pack
Legendary	0 / 13	0.0%	depleted
Rare	3 / 270	0.5%	—
Common	557 / 24,717	99%	—

Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across the slots, from the live remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).

Top chases

highest-FMV pulls in this pack

What's Inside

pullable editions

Sales History

secondary pack sales

Traced via opened packs — partial coverage that grows over time. Buyer links open the wallet's full intelligence.

Top purchases

Buyer	Sale price	When
@jrupacabra	$3.00	111d ago
@KB401	$2.00	67d ago
@trutalent1st	$2.00	71d ago

Recent purchases

Buyer	Sale price	When
@KB401	$2.00	67d ago
@trutalent1st	$2.00	71d ago
@jrupacabra	$3.00	111d ago

Top pulls by EV

top 2 of 0

Player	Set	Tier	Drop %	FMV	Edition EV
Carlton Carrington	Freshman Gems	RARE	50.00%	$15.33	—
Isaiah Hartenstein	NBA Cup	RARE	50.00%	$7.92	—

Edition EV = FMV × (drop_weight / pool_weight) × slots. Sums to Gross EV over the full pool. Snapshotted 8/5/2026, 3:13:09 AM. Methodology: cached pack_ev_history via the compute-pack-ev edge function.