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NBA Top Shot · Pack #4758
Freshman Gems, January 2025
Rare5 slots
Pack price
PrimarySOLD OUT
Secondary$80.00
Actual EV
—
≈ $26.15 ceiling · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 93% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $80.00 ask
Typical Pull
$9.40
Grail premium $16.75 — lottery-shaped
Value ratio
—
EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 93% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $80.00 ask
FMV coverage
100%
48 editions
Depletion
93%
pool · as of 1d ago
Packs remaining
47
of 719 minted · as of 1d ago
Packs Content Remaining
pool · as of 1d ago6.5%unopened
Ultimate0 / 8 (0.0%)
0 per 100 sealed packs · launch 1.1
Rare67 / 1,079 (6.2%)
143 per 100 sealed packs · launch 150 · ≈ launch rate
Common168 / 2,508 (6.7%)
Pull odds by tier
5 slots/pack · as of 1d ago| Tier | Remaining | % of pool | Odds / pack |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ultimate | 0 / 8 | 0.0% | depleted |
| Rare | 67 / 1,079 | 29% | ~1 in 1 |
| Common | 168 / 2,508 | 71% | ~1 in 1 |
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 5 slots, from the remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).
Top chases
highest-FMV pulls in this pack
What's Inside
FMV priced 48 of 48 (100%)Sorted among the 24 loaded editions · load more to sort the rest
Jared McCain
3 Pointer · Nov 23, 2024
Freshman Gems
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$35.50
Recent Low
$35.00
Mint 199
Hit 1.70%Wt 0.017
Reed Sheppard
3 Pointer · Nov 18, 2024
Freshman Gems
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$28.50
Recent Low
$26.00
Mint 199
Hit 2.13%Wt 0.021
Alexandre Sarr
Block · Nov 10, 2024
Freshman Gems
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$23.00
Recent Low
$20.00
Mint 199
Hit 1.70%Wt 0.017
Isaiah Collier
Layup · Jan 13, 2025
Freshman Gems
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$20.00
Recent Low
$22.99
Mint 199
Hit 1.28%Wt 0.013
Stephon Castle
Jump Shot · Oct 24, 2024
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$16.00
Recent Low
$11.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 2.13%Wt 0.021
Jaylon Tyson
Steal · Nov 21, 2024
Freshman Gems
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$14.00
Recent Low
$8.00
Mint 199
Hit 1.28%Wt 0.013
Rob Dillingham
Steal · Dec 16, 2024
Freshman Gems
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$13.00
Recent Low
$9.00
Mint 199
Hit 1.28%Wt 0.013
Jamal Shead
Steal · Dec 22, 2024
Freshman Gems
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$11.00
Recent Low
$9.00
Mint 199
Hit 1.28%Wt 0.013
Oso Ighodaro
Dunk · Dec 6, 2024
Freshman Gems
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$10.00
Recent Low
$8.00
Mint 199
Hit 0.85%Wt 0.009
Pelle Larsson
Assist · Nov 24, 2024
Freshman Gems
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$9.50
Recent Low
$9.00
Mint 199
Hit 2.55%Wt 0.026
Tristan da Silva
Jump Shot · Dec 29, 2024
Freshman Gems
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$9.00
Recent Low
$5.00
Mint 199
Hit 3.40%Wt 0.034
Tidjane Salaün
3 Pointer · Nov 28, 2024
Freshman Gems
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$8.00
Recent Low
$7.00
Mint 199
Hit 3.40%Wt 0.034
Yves Missi
Block · Nov 26, 2024
Freshman Gems
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$8.00
Recent Low
$7.00
Mint 199
Hit 3.40%Wt 0.034
Jonathan Mogbo
Dunk · Dec 20, 2024
Freshman Gems
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$8.00
Recent Low
$7.00
Mint 199
Hit 1.70%Wt 0.017
Johnny Furphy
Block · Nov 30, 2024
Freshman Gems
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$8.00
Recent Low
$10.00
Mint 199
Hit 0.85%Wt 0.009
Alexandre Sarr
Dunk · Oct 24, 2024
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$8.00
Recent Low
$7.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 0.85%Wt 0.009
Ryan Dunn
Block · Dec 29, 2024
Freshman Gems
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$7.00
Recent Low
$12.98
Mint 199
Hit 1.70%Wt 0.017
Kel'el Ware
Jump Shot · Nov 3, 2024
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$5.00
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 3.40%Wt 0.034
Donovan Clingan
Layup · Oct 24, 2024
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$5.00
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 1.70%Wt 0.017
Zaccharie Risacher
3 Pointer · Oct 23, 2024
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$3.50
Recent Low
$2.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 2.13%Wt 0.021
Devin Carter
Assist · Jan 4, 2025
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$2.48
Recent Low
$1.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 2.13%Wt 0.021
Reed Sheppard
Jump Shot · Oct 24, 2024
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$2.45
Recent Low
$2.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 2.13%Wt 0.021
Tristan da Silva
Layup · Nov 1, 2024
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$2.18
Recent Low
$1.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 2.13%Wt 0.021
Bronny James
Jump Shot · Oct 30, 2024
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$1.88
Recent Low
$1.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 2.98%Wt 0.03