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NBA Top Shot · Pack #5020

Chasing Throwdowns: Chance Hit

Common5 slots

Buy on secondary market Buy on Dapper →← All packs

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$10.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

2,649

attributed rips · sample

Moments pulled

13,221

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$122

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$4.51

per pack we could price

Realized pull value

Realized $12.18 avg · $12.70 median · $12.70 p90

Realized pull value · 10 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

⚠ 100% of the remaining EV leans on thinly-traded chase prices — treat it as soft.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Paolo Banchero · Rookie Revelation	LEGENDARY	100.00%	$945	100.0%

EV share = pull odds × FMV ÷ per-slot EV, over the editions remaining in the pool.

Sealed pack resale

Last $15.00 · 4mo agoRetail $10.002,057 sales

Pack price

PrimarySOLD OUT

Secondary$10.00

Actual EV

—

≈ — ceiling · EV inflated by survivor bias (99% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $10.00

Value ratio

—

EV inflated by survivor bias (99% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $10.00

FMV coverage

—

0 editions

Depletion

99%

live pool

Packs remaining

169

of 12,000 minted

Packs Content Remaining

live pool · as of 3h ago

1.4%unopened

169 / 12,000 packs

Legendary1 / 8 (13%)

Rare10 / 600 (1.7%)

Common904 / 59,392 (1.5%)

Pull odds by tier

5 slots/pack · as of 3h ago

Tier	Remaining	% of pool	Odds / pack
Legendary	1 / 8	0.1%	~1 in 183
Rare	10 / 600	1.1%	~1 in 19
Common	904 / 59,392	99%	~every pack

Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 5 slots, from the live remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).

Top chases

highest-FMV pulls in this pack

What's Inside

pullable editions

Sales History

secondary pack sales

Traced via opened packs — partial coverage that grows over time. Buyer links open the wallet's full intelligence.

No traced sales yet for this pack.

Top pulls by EV

top 1 of 0

Player	Set	Tier	Drop %	FMV	Edition EV
Paolo Banchero	Rookie Revelation	LEGENDARY	100.00%	$945	$4,725

Edition EV = FMV × (drop_weight / pool_weight) × slots. Sums to Gross EV over the full pool. Snapshotted 8/6/2026, 1:43:11 PM. Methodology: cached pack_ev_history via the compute-pack-ev edge function.