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NBA Top Shot · Pack #5020
Chasing Throwdowns: Chance Hit
Premium Chance Hit vs Chance Hit: what these packs contain →Common5 slots
Pack price
PrimarySOLD OUT
Secondary$10.00
Actual EV
—
≈ $2.77 ceiling · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 99% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $10.00 ask
Typical Pull
$0.95
Grail premium $1.82 — lottery-shaped
Value ratio
—
EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 99% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $10.00 ask
FMV coverage
100%
269 editions
Depletion
99%
pool · as of 1d ago
Packs remaining
164
of 12,000 minted · as of 1d ago
Packs Content Remaining
pool · as of 1d ago1.4%unopened
Legendary1 / 8 (13%)
0.61 per 100 sealed packs · launch 0.07 · 9.1× launch rate
Rare9 / 600 (1.5%)
5.5 per 100 sealed packs · launch 5.0 · ≈ launch rate
Common810 / 59,392 (1.4%)
Pull odds by tier
5 slots/pack · as of 1d ago| Tier | Remaining | % of pool | Odds / pack |
|---|---|---|---|
| Legendary | 1 / 8 | 0.1% | ~1 in 164 |
| Rare | 9 / 600 | 1.1% | ~1 in 19 |
| Common | 810 / 59,392 | 99% | ~every pack |
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 5 slots, from the remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).
Top chases
highest-FMV pulls in this pack
What's Inside
FMV priced 269 of 269 (100%)Sorted among the 24 loaded editions · load more to sort the rest
Paolo Banchero
Dunk · Jan 26, 2023
Rookie Revelation
LEGENDARYSeries 4
FMV
$216
Recent Low
$240
Mint 75
Hit 0.12%Wt 0.001
Jamal Murray
Dunk · Nov 4, 2022
Metallic Gold LE
RARESeries 4
FMV
$11.47
Recent Low
$9.00
Mint 399
Hit 0.12%Wt 0.001
Keyonte George
Dunk · Dec 20, 2024
Metallic Gold LE
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$10.00
Recent Low
$9.00
Mint 299
Hit 0.12%Wt 0.001
Domantas Sabonis
Dunk · Mar 15, 2022
Metallic Gold LE
RARESeries 3
FMV
$10.00
Recent Low
$8.00
Mint 749
Hit 0.12%Wt 0.001
Zach LaVine
Dunk · Feb 21, 2022
2022 All-Star Game
RARESeries 3
FMV
$4.49
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 2,022
Hit 0.12%Wt 0.001
Amir Coffey
Dunk · Jan 7, 2025
Breakout
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$4.00
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 399
Hit 0.12%Wt 0.001
Jalen Green
Dunk · Dec 12, 2024
NBA Cup
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$4.00
Recent Low
$3.89
Mint 399
Hit 0.12%Wt 0.001
Dejounte Murray
Dunk · Feb 21, 2022
2022 All-Star Game
RARESeries 3
FMV
$4.00
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 2,022
Hit 0.12%Wt 0.001
Kenyon Martin Jr.
Dunk · Nov 19, 2022
Throwdowns
RARESeries 4
FMV
$3.89
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 888
Hit 0.12%Wt 0.001
Jalen Green
Dunk · Nov 23, 2023
Throwdowns
RARESeries 2023-24
FMV
$3.25
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 699
Hit 0.12%Wt 0.001
Cam Spencer
3 Pointer · Dec 9, 2024
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$1.55
Recent Low
$0.99
Mint 4,000
Hit 0.24%Wt 0.002
De'Aaron Fox
3 Pointer · Feb 6, 2025
Fresh Threads
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$1.00
Recent Low
$1.00
Mint 2,024
Hit 0.37%Wt 0.004
Ryan Rollins
Dunk · Dec 22, 2024
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.99
Recent Low
$0.50
Mint 4,000
Hit 0.49%Wt 0.005
Justin Edwards
Layup · Nov 24, 2024
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.59
Recent Low
$0.65
Mint 4,000
Hit 0.49%Wt 0.005
Reece Beekman
Block · Jan 4, 2025
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.59
Recent Low
$0.29
Mint 4,000
Hit 0.37%Wt 0.004
Keaton Wallace
Steal · Jan 16, 2025
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.57
Recent Low
$0.55
Mint 4,000
Hit 0.73%Wt 0.007
Luka Garza
Dunk · Nov 9, 2024
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.50
Recent Low
$0.42
Mint 4,000
Hit 0.61%Wt 0.006
Pat Spencer
Dunk · Feb 6, 2025
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.47
Recent Low
$0.17
Mint 4,000
Hit 0.49%Wt 0.005
Justin Champagnie
3 Pointer · Dec 29, 2024
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.44
Recent Low
$0.21
Mint 4,000
Hit 0.61%Wt 0.006
Franz Wagner
Dunk · Dec 5, 2024
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.31
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 8,000
Hit 0.73%Wt 0.007
Naz Reid
Dunk · Nov 11, 2021
Base Set
COMMONSeries 3
FMV
$0.21
Recent Low
$0.16
Mint 60,000
Hit 1.46%Wt 0.015
Talen Horton-Tucker
Assist · Dec 20, 2024
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.20
Recent Low
$0.15
Mint 8,000
Hit 1.34%Wt 0.013
Nic Claxton
Dunk · Jan 8, 2022
Base Set
COMMONSeries 3
FMV
$0.20
Recent Low
$0.16
Mint 60,000
Hit 1.22%Wt 0.012
Grant Williams
3 Pointer · Oct 24, 2024
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.19
Recent Low
$0.15
Mint 8,000
Hit 1.83%Wt 0.018