NBA Top Shot · October 14, 2026
Premium Chance Hit vs Chance Hit
What a Premium Chance Hit pack actually contains, taken from the contents Top Shot itself published for each drop, and how much you pay per Rare-or-better Moment compared with the regular Chance Hit pack from the same release.
By Rip Packs City · 4 min read · Pack contents as published by Top Shot, pulled Oct 14, 2026
The short answer
On NBA Top Shot, a Chance Hit pack is a cheap pack ($3 to $20) that is mostly Common Moments, with a small chance of a Rare or better: the “hit”. A Premium Chance Hit pack is the expensive, short-supply version from the same release ($9 to $99, often a few hundred packs), with far more Rare-or-better Moments per pack.
What the name does not do is promise a fixed amount. Across the Premium Chance Hit drops below, Rare-or-better Moments per pack range from 0.09 to 3.00. Recent drops are built around a guaranteed hit: Top Shot’s own description of a 2026 Premium Chance Hit pack reads “Each Premium Chance Hit Pack contains 1 Rare or higher tier Moment”. Others were simply better odds: the Holo Icon, Rookie Revelation and 2025 WNBA Metallic Gold LE Premium packs held about one hit per 8 to 11 packs. Read the pack page for the drop in front of you, not the label.
Ten paired drops
Each row is one release, with its Premium Chance Hit pack beside the Chance Hit pack sold alongside it. Every number is arithmetic on Top Shot’s published pack contents: how many packs and how many Moments of each tier the drop held.
| Release | Premium: price · hits/pack · $/hit | Chance Hit: price · hits/pack · $/hit |
|---|---|---|
| WNBA Fresh Gems | $99 · 2.00 · $49.50 | $5 · 0.024 · $208 |
| WNBA Metallic Gold LE | $49 · 1.00 · $49.00 | $10 · 0.043 · $233 |
| 2026 NBA Finals | $49 · 2.00 · $24.50 | $5 · 0.153 · $32.70 |
| WNBA Rookie Debut | $65 · 0.60 · $108 | $10 · 0.005 · $2,000 |
| 2026 NBA Playoffs | $55 · 3.00 · $18.30 | $5 · 0.041 · $122 |
| Rookie Revelation | $95 · 1.00 · $95.00 | $5 · 0.059 · $84.70 |
| Run It Back: Origins | $29 · 1.26 · $23.00 | $9 · 0.251 · $35.90 |
| Holo Icon | $39 · 0.13 · $300 | $19 · 0.040 · $475 |
| WNBA Metallic Gold LE 2025 | $15 · 0.11 · $136 | $5 · 0.022 · $227 |
| Rookie Revelation (2025) | $15 · 0.09 · $167 | $5 · 0.037 · $135 |
“Hits/pack” is Rare-or-better Moments divided by packs. Where it lands on a whole number (1.00, 2.00, 3.00) the drop holds exactly that many hits per pack, which is consistent with a guaranteed slot. Where it does not, it is an average: a 0.13 means roughly one pack in eight.
What the table says
- Per hit, Premium was cheaper in 8 of 10 releases. The 2026 NBA Playoffs Premium pack worked out to about $18 per Rare-or-better Moment; its $5 Chance Hit sibling to about $122.
- Both Rookie Revelation drops went the other way. The $95 Premium pack cost about $95 per hit against about $85 on the $5 Chance Hit pack, and the 2025 $15 Premium pack about $167 against $135. A premium label is not a discount by default.
- The big swing is in Legendary odds. Rookie Revelation’s Premium pack held about 38 Legendary-or-better Moments per 100 packs, and WNBA Fresh Gems about 26, against roughly 1 or fewer per 100 on most Chance Hit packs.
- Supply is the catch. Recent Premium drops ran 200 to 710 packs. Chance Hit drops usually run 5,000 to 20,000.
How to read a pack before you buy
- Check the pack’s tier counts, not its name: Rare + Legendary + Ultimate divided by pack count is your hits per pack.
- Divide the price by that number to get the cost per hit, and compare it with the sibling pack from the same release.
- Then look at which Moments the Rares are. That is where the value actually is.
Each pack page shows tier counts, what has been pulled so far and expected value at live FMV. Pack Reality compares what packs held against what they sold for.
Open Pack Reality →Methodology: pack counts and per-tier Moment counts are the original contents Top Shot published for each distribution, pulled Oct 14, 2026. Pairs match a Premium Chance Hit drop with the Chance Hit pack from the same release. Prices are Top Shot’s retail price per pack. Nothing in this post is investment advice.