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NBA Top Shot · Pack #5037
Chasing Throwdowns II: Chance Hit
Common5 slots
Pack price
PrimarySOLD OUT
Secondary$18.00
Actual EV
—
≈ $12.99 ceiling · EV inflated by survivor bias (99% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $18.00
Typical Pull
$1.35
Grail premium $11.64 — lottery-shaped
Value ratio
—
EV inflated by survivor bias (99% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $18.00
FMV coverage
100%
372 editions
Depletion
99%
live pool
Packs remaining
162
of 11,000 minted
Packs Content Remaining
live pool · as of 20d ago1.5%unopened
Legendary1 / 8 (13%)
Rare6 / 550 (1.1%)
Common807 / 54,442 (1.5%)
Pull odds by tier
5 slots/pack · as of 20d ago| Tier | Remaining | % of pool | Odds / pack |
|---|---|---|---|
| Legendary | 1 / 8 | 0.1% | ~1 in 163 |
| Rare | 6 / 550 | 0.7% | ~1 in 28 |
| Common | 807 / 54,442 | 99% | ~every pack |
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 5 slots, from the live remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).
Top chases
highest-FMV pulls in this pack
What's Inside
FMV priced 372 of 372 (100%)Kevin Durant
Holo Icon
LEGENDARY2
FMV
$1,835
Floor
$200
Mint 61
Hit 0.12%Wt 0.001
Joel Embiid
Throwdowns
RARE4
FMV
$13.50
Floor
$12.00
Mint 506
Hit 0.12%Wt 0.001
Donovan Mitchell
NBA Cup
RARE7
FMV
$11.83
Floor
$6.00
Mint 399
Hit 0.12%Wt 0.001
Dalton Knecht
Freshman Gems
RARE7
FMV
$10.20
Floor
$12.00
Mint 199
Hit 0.12%Wt 0.001
Paul George
For the Win
RARE5
FMV
$8.50
Floor
$8.00
Mint 333
Hit 0.12%Wt 0.001
Golden State Warriors 3 Pointer
Squad Goals
RARE6
FMV
$7.19
Floor
$7.99
Mint 500
Hit 0.12%Wt 0.001
Jonathan Kuminga
Metallic Gold LE
RARE7
FMV
$4.70
Floor
$4.00
Mint 299
Hit 0.12%Wt 0.001
Ryan Rollins
Base Set
COMMON7
FMV
$1.03
Floor
$1.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 0.25%Wt 0.002
Moritz Wagner
Base Set
COMMON4
FMV
$0.46
Floor
$0.24
Mint 60,000
Hit 0.49%Wt 0.005
Derrick Jones Jr.
Base Set
COMMON4
FMV
$0.37
Floor
$0.24
Mint 60,000
Hit 0.49%Wt 0.005
Tacko Fall
Base Set
COMMON4
FMV
$0.30
Floor
$0.23
Mint 60,000
Hit 0.61%Wt 0.006
Justin Holiday
Base Set
COMMON4
FMV
$0.28
Floor
$0.23
Mint 60,000
Hit 1.11%Wt 0.011
Jakob Poeltl
Base Set
COMMON4
FMV
$0.28
Floor
$0.26
Mint 60,000
Hit 0.86%Wt 0.009
JaVale McGee
Base Set
COMMON4
FMV
$0.28
Floor
$0.23
Mint 60,000
Hit 0.74%Wt 0.007
Svi Mykhailiuk
Base Set
COMMON4
FMV
$0.28
Floor
$0.26
Mint 60,000
Hit 0.74%Wt 0.007
Jae'Sean Tate
Base Set
COMMON4
FMV
$0.27
Floor
$0.25
Mint 60,000
Hit 1.11%Wt 0.011
Isaac Okoro
Base Set
COMMON4
FMV
$0.26
Floor
$0.24
Mint 60,000
Hit 0.86%Wt 0.009
Jordan Clarkson
Base Set
COMMON4
FMV
$0.26
Floor
$0.23
Mint 60,000
Hit 0.74%Wt 0.007
Robert Williams III
Base Set
COMMON4
FMV
$0.26
Floor
$0.15
Mint 60,000
Hit 0.74%Wt 0.007
Talen Horton-Tucker
Base Set
COMMON4
FMV
$0.26
Floor
$0.25
Mint 60,000
Hit 0.74%Wt 0.007
Will Barton
Base Set
COMMON4
FMV
$0.25
Floor
$0.24
Mint 60,000
Hit 0.86%Wt 0.009
James Johnson
Base Set
COMMON4
FMV
$0.25
Floor
$0.23
Mint 60,000
Hit 0.74%Wt 0.007
DeAndre Jordan
Base Set
COMMON4
FMV
$0.24
Floor
$0.23
Mint 60,000
Hit 0.74%Wt 0.007
Mikal Bridges
Base Set
COMMON4
FMV
$0.24
Floor
$0.22
Mint 60,000
Hit 0.74%Wt 0.007