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NBA Top Shot · Pack #5051
Denied!: Guaranteed Rare
Rare5 slots
Pack price
PrimarySOLD OUT
Secondary$34.00
Actual EV
—
≈ $16.72 ceiling · EV inflated by survivor bias (96% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $34.00
Typical Pull
$3.25
Grail premium $13.47 — lottery-shaped
Value ratio
—
EV inflated by survivor bias (96% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $34.00
FMV coverage
100%
29 editions
Depletion
96%
live pool
Packs remaining
45
of 1,111 minted
Packs Content Remaining
live pool · as of 18h ago4.1%unopened
Ultimate0 / 1 (0.0%)
Legendary2 / 40 (5.0%)
Rare106 / 2,743 (3.9%)
Common117 / 2,771 (4.2%)
Pull odds by tier
5 slots/pack · as of 18h ago| Tier | Remaining | % of pool | Odds / pack |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ultimate | 0 / 1 | 0.0% | depleted |
| Legendary | 2 / 40 | 0.9% | ~1 in 23 |
| Rare | 106 / 2,743 | 47% | ~1 in 1 |
| Common | 117 / 2,771 | 52% | ~1 in 1 |
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 5 slots, from the live remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).
Top chases
highest-FMV pulls in this pack
What's Inside
FMV priced 29 of 29 (100%)Payton Pritchard
Ascension
LEGENDARY7
FMV
$170
Floor
$52.00
Mint 99
Hit 0.44%Wt 0.022
Malik Monk
Ascension
LEGENDARY7
FMV
$85.50
Floor
$37.00
Mint 99
Hit 0.44%Wt 0.022
Svi Mykhailiuk
Denied!
RARE7
FMV
$7.25
Floor
$7.00
Mint 599
Hit 4.00%Wt 0.2
Kevin Durant
Denied!
RARE7
FMV
$6.38
Floor
$5.00
Mint 599
Hit 3.11%Wt 0.156
Walker Kessler
Denied!
RARE7
FMV
$6.30
Floor
$5.00
Mint 599
Hit 4.44%Wt 0.222
Goga Bitadze
Denied!
RARE7
FMV
$4.81
Floor
$4.00
Mint 599
Hit 2.67%Wt 0.133
Lonzo Ball
Denied!
RARE7
FMV
$4.55
Floor
$4.00
Mint 599
Hit 4.00%Wt 0.2
Keon Johnson
Breakout
RARE7
FMV
$4.40
Floor
$4.00
Mint 399
Hit 0.89%Wt 0.044
Jaden McDaniels
Denied!
RARE7
FMV
$4.39
Floor
$4.00
Mint 599
Hit 4.44%Wt 0.222
Toumani Camara
Denied!
RARE7
FMV
$4.33
Floor
$4.00
Mint 599
Hit 4.44%Wt 0.222
GG Jackson II
Denied!
RARE7
FMV
$4.32
Floor
$4.00
Mint 599
Hit 4.89%Wt 0.244
Grayson Allen
Breakout
RARE7
FMV
$4.14
Floor
$4.00
Mint 399
Hit 3.11%Wt 0.156
Scottie Barnes
Denied!
RARE7
FMV
$4.00
Floor
$4.00
Mint 599
Hit 3.56%Wt 0.178
Nick Richards
Breakout
RARE7
FMV
$4.00
Floor
$4.00
Mint 399
Hit 0.44%Wt 0.022
Jaren Jackson Jr.
Denied!
RARE7
FMV
$3.40
Floor
$4.00
Mint 599
Hit 4.44%Wt 0.222
Isaiah Joe
Breakout
RARE7
FMV
$3.40
Floor
$4.00
Mint 399
Hit 2.22%Wt 0.111
Moses Moody
Breakout
RARE7
FMV
$3.40
Floor
$4.00
Mint 399
Hit 0.44%Wt 0.022
Jalen Suggs
Hoop Vision
COMMON7
FMV
$0.65
Floor
$0.25
Mint 2,500
Hit 6.22%Wt 0.311
Nikola Jokić
Hoop Vision
COMMON7
FMV
$0.44
Floor
$0.24
Mint 2,500
Hit 4.44%Wt 0.222
Nick Smith Jr.
Hoop Vision
COMMON7
FMV
$0.37
Floor
$0.25
Mint 2,500
Hit 7.56%Wt 0.378
Damian Lillard
Hoop Vision
COMMON7
FMV
$0.37
Floor
$0.22
Mint 2,500
Hit 3.11%Wt 0.156
Shaedon Sharpe
Hoop Vision
COMMON7
FMV
$0.36
Floor
$0.24
Mint 2,500
Hit 7.11%Wt 0.356
LaMelo Ball
Hoop Vision
COMMON7
FMV
$0.33
Floor
$0.25
Mint 2,500
Hit 3.56%Wt 0.178
Trae Young
Hoop Vision
COMMON7
FMV
$0.30
Floor
$0.19
Mint 2,500
Hit 4.89%Wt 0.244