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NBA Top Shot · Pack #5051
Denied!: Guaranteed Rare
Rare5 slots
Pack price
PrimarySOLD OUT
Secondary$34.00
Actual EV
—
≈ $13.72 ceiling · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 96% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $34.00 ask
Typical Pull
$1.95
Grail premium $11.77 — lottery-shaped
Value ratio
—
EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 96% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $34.00 ask
FMV coverage
100%
29 editions
Depletion
96%
pool · as of 1d ago
Packs remaining
45
of 1,111 minted · as of 1d ago
Packs Content Remaining
pool · as of 1d ago4.1%unopened
Ultimate0 / 1 (0.0%)
0 per 100 sealed packs · launch 0.09
Legendary2 / 40 (5.0%)
4.4 per 100 sealed packs · launch 3.6 · 1.2× launch rate
Rare106 / 2,743 (3.9%)
236 per 100 sealed packs · launch 247 · ≈ launch rate
Common117 / 2,771 (4.2%)
Pull odds by tier
5 slots/pack · as of 1d ago| Tier | Remaining | % of pool | Odds / pack |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ultimate | 0 / 1 | 0.0% | depleted |
| Legendary | 2 / 40 | 0.9% | ~1 in 23 |
| Rare | 106 / 2,743 | 47% | ~1 in 1 |
| Common | 117 / 2,771 | 52% | ~1 in 1 |
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 5 slots, from the remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).
Top chases
highest-FMV pulls in this pack
What's Inside
FMV priced 29 of 29 (100%)Sorted among the 24 loaded editions · load more to sort the rest
Payton Pritchard
Reel · Mar 6, 2025
Ascension
LEGENDARYSeries 2024-25
FMV
$53.10
Recent Low
$59.00
Mint 99
Hit 0.44%Wt 0.004
Malik Monk
Dunk · Dec 22, 2024
Ascension
LEGENDARYSeries 2024-25
FMV
$45.00
Recent Low
$59.00
Mint 99
Hit 0.44%Wt 0.004
Walker Kessler
Block · Feb 6, 2025
Denied!
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$9.00
Recent Low
$5.00
Mint 599
Hit 4.44%Wt 0.044
Kevin Durant
Block · Jan 30, 2025
Denied!
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$7.50
Recent Low
$5.00
Mint 599
Hit 3.11%Wt 0.031
Svi Mykhailiuk
Block · Jan 21, 2025
Denied!
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$5.99
Recent Low
$6.00
Mint 599
Hit 4.00%Wt 0.04
Scottie Barnes
Block · Mar 8, 2025
Denied!
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$4.99
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 599
Hit 3.56%Wt 0.036
Toumani Camara
Block · Jan 31, 2025
Denied!
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$4.25
Recent Low
$3.88
Mint 599
Hit 4.44%Wt 0.044
Jaden McDaniels
Block · Mar 5, 2025
Denied!
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$4.00
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 599
Hit 4.44%Wt 0.044
Grayson Allen
Layup · Jan 11, 2025
Breakout
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$4.00
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 399
Hit 3.11%Wt 0.031
Isaiah Joe
Reel · Jan 11, 2025
Breakout
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$4.00
Recent Low
$2.00
Mint 399
Hit 2.22%Wt 0.022
Keon Johnson
Dunk · Mar 2, 2025
Breakout
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$4.00
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 399
Hit 0.89%Wt 0.009
GG Jackson II
Block · Feb 3, 2025
Denied!
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$3.00
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 599
Hit 4.89%Wt 0.049
Jaren Jackson Jr.
Block · Mar 1, 2025
Denied!
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$3.00
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 599
Hit 4.44%Wt 0.044
Lonzo Ball
Block · Feb 22, 2025
Denied!
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$3.00
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 599
Hit 4.00%Wt 0.04
Goga Bitadze
Block · Dec 16, 2024
Denied!
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$3.00
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 599
Hit 2.67%Wt 0.027
Moses Moody
3 Pointer · Jan 24, 2025
Breakout
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$3.00
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 399
Hit 0.44%Wt 0.004
Nick Richards
Dunk · Jan 26, 2025
Breakout
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$3.00
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 399
Hit 0.44%Wt 0.004
Trae Young
Assist · Mar 5, 2025
Hoop Vision
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.39
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 2,500
Hit 4.89%Wt 0.049
Ja Morant
Assist · Nov 26, 2024
Hoop Vision
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.32
Recent Low
$0.19
Mint 2,500
Hit 3.11%Wt 0.031
Jalen Suggs
Assist · Dec 5, 2024
Hoop Vision
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.30
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 2,500
Hit 6.22%Wt 0.062
Nikola Jokić
Assist · Jan 18, 2025
Hoop Vision
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.28
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 2,500
Hit 4.44%Wt 0.044
Alperen Şengün
Assist · Mar 13, 2025
Hoop Vision
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.25
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 2,500
Hit 3.56%Wt 0.036
Nick Smith Jr.
Assist · Jan 8, 2025
Hoop Vision
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.21
Recent Low
$0.19
Mint 2,500
Hit 7.56%Wt 0.076
Shaedon Sharpe
Assist · Jan 12, 2025
Hoop Vision
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.21
Recent Low
$0.15
Mint 2,500
Hit 7.11%Wt 0.071