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NBA Top Shot · Pack #5086
Rookie Revelation: Chance Hit
Premium Chance Hit vs Chance Hit: what these packs contain →Common5 slots
Pack price
PrimarySOLD OUT
Secondary$17.50
Actual EV
—
≈ $2.62 ceiling · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 99% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $17.50 ask
Typical Pull
$1.10
Grail premium $1.52 — lottery-shaped
Value ratio
—
EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 99% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $17.50 ask
FMV coverage
100%
89 editions
Depletion
99%
pool · as of 2d ago
Packs remaining
207
of 17,100 minted · as of 2d ago
Packs Content Remaining
pool · as of 2d ago1.2%unopened
Ultimate0 / 3 (0.0%)
0 per 100 sealed packs · launch 0.02
Legendary4 / 254 (1.6%)
1.9 per 100 sealed packs · launch 1.5 · 1.3× launch rate
Rare4 / 343 (1.2%)
1.9 per 100 sealed packs · launch 2.0 · ≈ launch rate
Common1,027 / 84,900 (1.2%)
Pull odds by tier
5 slots/pack · as of 2d ago| Tier | Remaining | % of pool | Odds / pack |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ultimate | 0 / 3 | 0.0% | depleted |
| Legendary | 4 / 254 | 0.4% | ~1 in 52 |
| Rare | 4 / 343 | 0.4% | ~1 in 52 |
| Common | 1,027 / 84,900 | 99% | ~every pack |
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 5 slots, from the remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).
Top chases
highest-FMV pulls in this pack
What's Inside
FMV priced 89 of 89 (100%)Sorted among the 24 loaded editions · load more to sort the rest
Ron Holland II
Dunk · Jan 18, 2025
Rookie Revelation
LEGENDARYSeries 2024-25
FMV
$64.50
Recent Low
$64.00
Mint 75
Hit 0.10%Wt 0.001
Carlton Carrington
Jump Shot · Mar 15, 2025
Rookie Revelation
LEGENDARYSeries 2024-25
FMV
$61.00
Recent Low
$60.00
Mint 75
Hit 0.10%Wt 0.001
Adem Bona
Dunk · Mar 9, 2025
Rookie Revelation
LEGENDARYSeries 2024-25
FMV
$56.00
Recent Low
$53.00
Mint 75
Hit 0.10%Wt 0.001
Rob Dillingham
Jump Shot · Jan 31, 2025
Rookie Revelation
LEGENDARYSeries 2024-25
FMV
$51.00
Recent Low
$50.00
Mint 75
Hit 0.10%Wt 0.001
Bronny James
3 Pointer · Mar 21, 2025
Freshman Gems
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$13.50
Recent Low
$12.00
Mint 199
Hit 0.10%Wt 0.001
Rob Dillingham
Steal · Dec 16, 2024
Freshman Gems
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$13.00
Recent Low
$9.00
Mint 199
Hit 0.10%Wt 0.001
Quinten Post
Block · Mar 21, 2025
Freshman Gems
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$10.00
Recent Low
$18.00
Mint 199
Hit 0.10%Wt 0.001
Justin Edwards
Dunk · Mar 20, 2025
Freshman Gems
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$9.00
Recent Low
$16.00
Mint 199
Hit 0.10%Wt 0.001
Quenton Jackson
Dunk · Nov 19, 2024
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$1.20
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 4,000
Hit 1.06%Wt 0.011
Bobi Klintman
Block · Mar 2, 2025
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.60
Recent Low
$0.36
Mint 4,000
Hit 2.71%Wt 0.027
Damion Baugh
3 Pointer · Feb 13, 2025
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.52
Recent Low
$0.45
Mint 4,000
Hit 2.61%Wt 0.026
Donovan Mitchell
Assist · Mar 6, 2025
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.27
Recent Low
$0.21
Mint 8,000
Hit 3.29%Wt 0.033
Wendell Carter Jr.
Dunk · Feb 22, 2025
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.26
Recent Low
$0.18
Mint 8,000
Hit 4.83%Wt 0.048
Tyler Herro
Dunk · Dec 21, 2024
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.23
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 8,000
Hit 3.77%Wt 0.038
Ja Morant
Layup · Jan 14, 2025
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.23
Recent Low
$0.19
Mint 8,000
Hit 3.09%Wt 0.031
Julian Strawther
Dunk · Nov 7, 2024
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.22
Recent Low
$0.19
Mint 8,000
Hit 3.29%Wt 0.033
Precious Achiuwa
Dunk · Dec 29, 2024
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.20
Recent Low
$0.16
Mint 8,000
Hit 4.06%Wt 0.041
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
Jump Shot · Dec 22, 2024
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.20
Recent Low
$0.17
Mint 8,000
Hit 3.48%Wt 0.035
Isaiah Hartenstein
Dunk · Feb 25, 2025
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.20
Recent Low
$0.15
Mint 8,000
Hit 3.38%Wt 0.034
Josh Giddey
Jump Shot · Jan 26, 2025
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.20
Recent Low
$0.17
Mint 8,000
Hit 3.29%Wt 0.033
Mike Conley
3 Pointer · Jan 1, 2025
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.19
Recent Low
$0.17
Mint 8,000
Hit 4.15%Wt 0.042
Dejounte Murray
Assist · Jan 5, 2025
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.19
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 8,000
Hit 4.06%Wt 0.041
Karl-Anthony Towns
Dunk · Nov 14, 2024
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.19
Recent Low
$0.21
Mint 8,000
Hit 3.48%Wt 0.035
Derrick Jones Jr.
Dunk · Dec 28, 2024
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.18
Recent Low
$0.18
Mint 8,000
Hit 3.57%Wt 0.036