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NBA Top Shot · Pack #5086
Rookie Revelation: Chance Hit
Common5 slots
Pack price
PrimarySOLD OUT
Secondary$20.00
Actual EV
—
≈ $3.93 ceiling · EV inflated by survivor bias (99% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $20.00
Typical Pull
$1.50
Grail premium $2.43 — lottery-shaped
Value ratio
—
EV inflated by survivor bias (99% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $20.00
FMV coverage
100%
89 editions
Depletion
99%
live pool
Packs remaining
208
of 17,100 minted
Packs Content Remaining
live pool · as of 20d ago1.2%unopened
Ultimate0 / 3 (0.0%)
Legendary4 / 254 (1.6%)
Rare4 / 343 (1.2%)
Common1,042 / 84,900 (1.2%)
Pull odds by tier
5 slots/pack · as of 20d ago| Tier | Remaining | % of pool | Odds / pack |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ultimate | 0 / 3 | 0.0% | depleted |
| Legendary | 4 / 254 | 0.4% | ~1 in 53 |
| Rare | 4 / 343 | 0.4% | ~1 in 53 |
| Common | 1,042 / 84,900 | 99% | ~every pack |
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 5 slots, from the live remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).
Top chases
highest-FMV pulls in this pack
What's Inside
FMV priced 89 of 89 (100%)Carlton Carrington
Rookie Revelation
LEGENDARY7
FMV
$128
Floor
$1.00
Mint 75
Hit 0.10%Wt 0.001
Rob Dillingham
Rookie Revelation
LEGENDARY7
FMV
$99.00
Floor
$110
Mint 75
Hit 0.10%Wt 0.001
Ron Holland II
Rookie Revelation
LEGENDARY7
FMV
$85.00
Floor
$61.00
Mint 75
Hit 0.10%Wt 0.001
Adem Bona
Rookie Revelation
LEGENDARY7
FMV
$81.50
Floor
$57.00
Mint 75
Hit 0.10%Wt 0.001
Bronny James
Freshman Gems
RARE7
FMV
$26.57
Floor
$18.00
Mint 199
Hit 0.10%Wt 0.001
Rob Dillingham
Freshman Gems
RARE7
FMV
$21.60
Floor
$24.00
Mint 199
Hit 0.10%Wt 0.001
Quinten Post
Freshman Gems
RARE7
FMV
$17.10
Floor
$19.00
Mint 199
Hit 0.10%Wt 0.001
Justin Edwards
Freshman Gems
RARE7
FMV
$14.40
Floor
$16.00
Mint 199
Hit 0.10%Wt 0.001
Dejounte Murray
Base Set
COMMON7
FMV
$0.53
Floor
$0.39
Mint 8,000
Hit 4.10%Wt 0.041
Bobi Klintman
Rookie Debut
COMMON7
FMV
$0.52
Floor
$0.22
Mint 4,000
Hit 2.67%Wt 0.027
Josh Giddey
Base Set
COMMON7
FMV
$0.40
Floor
$0.25
Mint 8,000
Hit 3.33%Wt 0.033
Damion Baugh
Rookie Debut
COMMON7
FMV
$0.38
Floor
$0.22
Mint 4,000
Hit 2.57%Wt 0.026
Wendell Carter Jr.
Base Set
COMMON7
FMV
$0.37
Floor
$0.35
Mint 8,000
Hit 4.86%Wt 0.049
Ayo Dosunmu
Base Set
COMMON7
FMV
$0.35
Floor
$0.25
Mint 8,000
Hit 2.19%Wt 0.022
Donovan Mitchell
Base Set
COMMON7
FMV
$0.33
Floor
$0.26
Mint 8,000
Hit 3.24%Wt 0.032
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
Base Set
COMMON7
FMV
$0.31
Floor
$0.25
Mint 8,000
Hit 3.52%Wt 0.035
Ja Morant
Base Set
COMMON7
FMV
$0.31
Floor
$0.23
Mint 8,000
Hit 3.05%Wt 0.03
Precious Achiuwa
Base Set
COMMON7
FMV
$0.29
Floor
$0.25
Mint 8,000
Hit 4.19%Wt 0.042
Julian Strawther
Base Set
COMMON7
FMV
$0.29
Floor
$0.24
Mint 8,000
Hit 3.24%Wt 0.032
Tyler Herro
Base Set
COMMON7
FMV
$0.28
Floor
$0.15
Mint 8,000
Hit 3.81%Wt 0.038
Mike Conley
Base Set
COMMON7
FMV
$0.27
Floor
$0.25
Mint 8,000
Hit 4.10%Wt 0.041
Derrick Jones Jr.
Base Set
COMMON7
FMV
$0.26
Floor
$0.18
Mint 8,000
Hit 3.62%Wt 0.036
Isaiah Hartenstein
Base Set
COMMON7
FMV
$0.25
Floor
$0.20
Mint 8,000
Hit 3.43%Wt 0.034
Karl-Anthony Towns
Base Set
COMMON7
FMV
$0.25
Floor
$0.22
Mint 8,000
Hit 3.43%Wt 0.034