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NBA Top Shot · Pack #5194
Holo Icon: Guaranteed Rare Hit
Rare1 slot
Pack price
PrimarySOLD OUT
Secondary$60.00
Actual EV
—
≈ $11.85 ceiling · EV inflated by survivor bias (99% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $60.00
Typical Pull
$5.10
Grail premium $6.75 — lottery-shaped
Value ratio
—
EV inflated by survivor bias (99% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $60.00
FMV coverage
100%
20 editions
Depletion
99%
live pool
Packs remaining
30
of 5,150 minted
Packs Content Remaining
live pool · as of 20d ago0.6%unopened
Ultimate0 / 1 (0.0%)
Legendary3 / 361 (0.8%)
Rare27 / 4,788 (0.6%)
Pull odds by tier
1 slots/pack · as of 20d ago| Tier | Remaining | % of pool | Odds / pack |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ultimate | 0 / 1 | 0.0% | depleted |
| Legendary | 3 / 361 | 10% | ~1 in 10 |
| Rare | 27 / 4,788 | 90% | ~1 in 1 |
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 1 slots, from the live remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).
Top chases
highest-FMV pulls in this pack
What's Inside
FMV priced 20 of 20 (100%)Terrence Shannon Jr.
Rookie Revelation
LEGENDARY7
FMV
$87.30
Floor
$97.00
Mint 75
Hit 3.33%Wt 0.033
Jamal Shead
Rookie Revelation
LEGENDARY7
FMV
$68.00
Floor
$80.00
Mint 75
Hit 3.33%Wt 0.033
Deni Avdija
Ascension
LEGENDARY7
FMV
$46.42
Floor
$41.00
Mint 99
Hit 3.33%Wt 0.033
LeBron James
For The Win
RARE7
FMV
$18.50
Floor
$15.00
Mint 399
Hit 3.33%Wt 0.033
Jaylen Brown
Metallic Gold LE
RARE7
FMV
$9.77
Floor
$7.00
Mint 299
Hit 6.67%Wt 0.067
Steph Curry
Video Game Numbers
RARE7
FMV
$7.65
Floor
$9.00
Mint 499
Hit 3.33%Wt 0.033
Caris LeVert
For The Win
RARE7
FMV
$5.33
Floor
$4.00
Mint 399
Hit 13.33%Wt 0.133
Deni Avdija
Metallic Gold LE
RARE7
FMV
$5.10
Floor
$6.00
Mint 299
Hit 6.67%Wt 0.067
Franz Wagner
Metallic Gold LE
RARE7
FMV
$5.10
Floor
$6.00
Mint 299
Hit 6.67%Wt 0.067
Mark Williams
Metallic Gold LE
RARE7
FMV
$5.00
Floor
$5.00
Mint 299
Hit 3.33%Wt 0.033
Paul George
Metallic Gold LE
RARE7
FMV
$5.00
Floor
$5.00
Mint 299
Hit 3.33%Wt 0.033
Sandro Mamukelashvili
Video Game Numbers
RARE7
FMV
$4.96
Floor
$4.00
Mint 499
Hit 3.33%Wt 0.033
Toumani Camara
Metallic Gold LE
RARE7
FMV
$4.90
Floor
$4.50
Mint 299
Hit 3.33%Wt 0.033
Miles Bridges
For The Win
RARE7
FMV
$4.50
Floor
$4.00
Mint 399
Hit 3.33%Wt 0.033
Jaylin Williams
Breakout
RARE7
FMV
$4.25
Floor
$5.00
Mint 399
Hit 6.67%Wt 0.067
Mikal Bridges
For The Win
RARE7
FMV
$4.25
Floor
$5.00
Mint 399
Hit 6.67%Wt 0.067
Russell Westbrook
Metallic Gold LE
RARE7
FMV
$4.25
Floor
$5.00
Mint 299
Hit 3.33%Wt 0.033
Brandon Boston Jr.
Breakout
RARE7
FMV
$4.25
Floor
$5.00
Mint 399
Hit 3.33%Wt 0.033
Zion Williamson
Video Game Numbers
RARE7
FMV
$4.14
Floor
$4.00
Mint 499
Hit 10.00%Wt 0.1
Devin Vassell
Video Game Numbers
RARE7
FMV
$4.00
Floor
$4.00
Mint 499
Hit 3.33%Wt 0.033