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NBA Top Shot · Pack #5194
Holo Icon: Guaranteed Rare Hit
Rare1 slot
Pack price
PrimarySOLD OUT
Secondary$60.00
Actual EV
—
≈ $10.40 ceiling · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 99% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $60.00 ask
Typical Pull
$4.35
Grail premium $6.05 — lottery-shaped
Value ratio
—
EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 99% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $60.00 ask
FMV coverage
100%
19 editions
Depletion
99%
pool · as of 1m ago
Packs remaining
29
of 5,150 minted · as of 1m ago
Packs Content Remaining
pool · as of 1m ago0.6%unopened
Ultimate0 / 1 (0.0%)
0 per 100 sealed packs · launch 0.02
Legendary3 / 361 (0.8%)
10 per 100 sealed packs · launch 7.0 · 1.5× launch rate
Rare26 / 4,788 (0.5%)
90 per 100 sealed packs · launch 93 · ≈ launch rate
Pull odds by tier
1 slots/pack · as of 1m ago| Tier | Remaining | % of pool | Odds / pack |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ultimate | 0 / 1 | 0.0% | depleted |
| Legendary | 3 / 361 | 10% | ~1 in 10 |
| Rare | 26 / 4,788 | 90% | ~1 in 1 |
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 1 slots, from the remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).
Top chases
highest-FMV pulls in this pack
What's Inside
FMV priced 19 of 19 (100%)Sorted among the 24 loaded editions · load more to sort the rest
Terrence Shannon Jr.
Dunk · Feb 28, 2025
Rookie Revelation
LEGENDARYSeries 2024-25
FMV
$62.00
Recent Low
$60.00
Mint 75
Hit 3.45%Wt 0.034
Jamal Shead
Dunk · Mar 10, 2025
Rookie Revelation
LEGENDARYSeries 2024-25
FMV
$52.00
Recent Low
$89.00
Mint 75
Hit 3.45%Wt 0.034
Deni Avdija
Dunk · Mar 21, 2025
Ascension
LEGENDARYSeries 2024-25
FMV
$50.00
Recent Low
$49.00
Mint 99
Hit 3.45%Wt 0.034
LeBron James
Layup · Mar 26, 2025
For The Win
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$14.00
Recent Low
$13.00
Mint 399
Hit 3.45%Wt 0.034
Steph Curry
Reel · Feb 28, 2025
Video Game Numbers
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$11.00
Recent Low
$8.00
Mint 499
Hit 3.45%Wt 0.034
Deni Avdija
Dunk · Mar 16, 2025
Metallic Gold LE
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$8.50
Recent Low
$6.00
Mint 299
Hit 6.90%Wt 0.069
Jaylen Brown
Dunk · Mar 9, 2025
Metallic Gold LE
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$7.00
Recent Low
$5.00
Mint 299
Hit 6.90%Wt 0.069
Franz Wagner
3 Pointer · Jan 26, 2025
Metallic Gold LE
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$6.50
Recent Low
$5.00
Mint 299
Hit 6.90%Wt 0.069
Paul George
Layup · Feb 27, 2025
Metallic Gold LE
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$5.75
Recent Low
$5.00
Mint 299
Hit 3.45%Wt 0.034
Mark Williams
Block · Mar 20, 2025
Metallic Gold LE
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$5.00
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 299
Hit 3.45%Wt 0.034
Russell Westbrook
Dunk · Mar 15, 2025
Metallic Gold LE
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$4.99
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 299
Hit 3.45%Wt 0.034
Toumani Camara
Dunk · Mar 10, 2025
Metallic Gold LE
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$4.35
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 299
Hit 3.45%Wt 0.034
Jaylin Williams
Assist · Mar 20, 2025
Breakout
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$4.00
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 399
Hit 6.90%Wt 0.069
Miles Bridges
3 Pointer · Feb 8, 2025
For The Win
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$4.00
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 399
Hit 3.45%Wt 0.034
Zion Williamson
Reel · Feb 28, 2025
Video Game Numbers
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$3.69
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 499
Hit 10.34%Wt 0.103
Devin Vassell
Reel · Mar 5, 2025
Video Game Numbers
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$3.61
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 499
Hit 3.45%Wt 0.034
Mikal Bridges
3 Pointer · Mar 12, 2025
For The Win
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$3.40
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 399
Hit 6.90%Wt 0.069
Caris LeVert
Layup · Mar 4, 2025
For The Win
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$3.00
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 399
Hit 13.79%Wt 0.138
Brandon Boston Jr.
Jump Shot · Nov 9, 2024
Breakout
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$3.00
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 399
Hit 3.45%Wt 0.034