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NBA Top Shot · Pack #5207
Chasing Aaron Gordon's Buzzer Beater: Chance Hit
Premium Chance Hit vs Chance Hit: what these packs contain →Common5 slots
Pack price
PrimarySOLD OUT
Secondary$17.00
Actual EV
—
≈ $2.80 ceiling · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 98% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $17.00 ask
Typical Pull
$1.10
Grail premium $1.70 — lottery-shaped
Value ratio
—
EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 98% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $17.00 ask
FMV coverage
100%
459 editions
Depletion
98%
pool · as of 16h ago
Packs remaining
157
of 10,000 minted · as of 16h ago
Packs Content Remaining
pool · as of 16h ago1.6%unopened
Legendary1 / 200 (0.5%)
0.64 per 100 sealed packs · launch 2.0 · 0.3× launch rate
Rare34 / 2,500 (1.4%)
22 per 100 sealed packs · launch 25 · 0.9× launch rate
Common750 / 47,300 (1.6%)
Pull odds by tier
5 slots/pack · as of 16h ago| Tier | Remaining | % of pool | Odds / pack |
|---|---|---|---|
| Legendary | 1 / 200 | 0.1% | ~1 in 157 |
| Rare | 34 / 2,500 | 4.3% | ~1 in 5 |
| Common | 750 / 47,300 | 96% | ~every pack |
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 5 slots, from the remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).
Top chases
highest-FMV pulls in this pack
What's Inside
FMV priced 459 of 459 (100%)Sorted among the 24 loaded editions · load more to sort the rest
Jaylen Wells
Dunk · Feb 26, 2025
Rookie Revelation
LEGENDARYSeries 2024-25
FMV
$59.00
Recent Low
$30.00
Mint 75
Hit 0.13%Wt 0.001
Nikola Jokić
Reel · Mar 12, 2024
Video Game Numbers
RARESeries 2023-24
FMV
$14.00
Recent Low
$16.00
Mint 286
Hit 0.13%Wt 0.001
Nikola Jokić
Assist · Dec 11, 2022
Metallic Gold LE
RARESeries 4
FMV
$12.00
Recent Low
$10.00
Mint 399
Hit 0.13%Wt 0.001
Jalen Johnson
Dunk · Dec 3, 2024
Metallic Gold LE
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$9.00
Recent Low
$8.00
Mint 299
Hit 0.13%Wt 0.001
Michael Cooper
Dunk · Nov 9, 1986
Run It Back 1986-87
RARESeries 4
FMV
$9.00
Recent Low
$7.00
Mint 499
Hit 0.13%Wt 0.001
Ausar Thompson
Dunk · Jan 5, 2025
Throwdowns
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$7.35
Recent Low
$7.00
Mint 599
Hit 0.13%Wt 0.001
Devin Booker
Handles · Dec 3, 2023
Metallic Gold LE
RARESeries 2023-24
FMV
$7.00
Recent Low
$9.00
Mint 299
Hit 0.13%Wt 0.001
Jaren Jackson Jr.
Handles · Jan 30, 2024
Metallic Gold LE
RARESeries 2023-24
FMV
$6.50
Recent Low
$6.00
Mint 299
Hit 0.13%Wt 0.001
Donovan Mitchell
Handles · Nov 16, 2024
NBA Cup
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$6.50
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 399
Hit 0.13%Wt 0.001
Svi Mykhailiuk
Block · Jan 21, 2025
Denied!
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$5.99
Recent Low
$6.00
Mint 599
Hit 0.13%Wt 0.001
Damian Lillard
Reel · Jan 20, 2024
Video Game Numbers
RARESeries 2023-24
FMV
$5.10
Recent Low
$6.00
Mint 499
Hit 0.13%Wt 0.001
Austin Reaves
Layup · Dec 26, 2024
For The Win
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$5.00
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 399
Hit 0.13%Wt 0.001
Scottie Barnes
Assist · Nov 30, 2024
NBA Cup
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$5.00
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 399
Hit 0.13%Wt 0.001
Donovan Clingan
Layup · Oct 24, 2024
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$4.90
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 0.13%Wt 0.001
Sandro Mamukelashvili
Reel · Mar 20, 2025
Video Game Numbers
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$4.50
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 499
Hit 0.25%Wt 0.003
Tre Mann
Dunk · Dec 11, 2021
Metallic Gold LE
RARESeries 3
FMV
$4.50
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 749
Hit 0.13%Wt 0.001
Toumani Camara
Dunk · Mar 10, 2025
Metallic Gold LE
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$4.35
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 299
Hit 0.13%Wt 0.001
Julian Champagnie
Steal · Mar 23, 2025
Breakout
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$4.25
Recent Low
$5.00
Mint 399
Hit 0.13%Wt 0.001
Aaron Gordon
Dunk · Apr 26, 2025
2025 NBA Playoffs: Rare
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$4.00
Recent Low
$4.75
Mint 299
Hit 0.13%Wt 0.001
Isaiah Joe
Reel · Jan 11, 2025
Breakout
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$4.00
Recent Low
$2.00
Mint 399
Hit 0.13%Wt 0.001
Miles Bridges
3 Pointer · Feb 8, 2025
For The Win
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$4.00
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 399
Hit 0.13%Wt 0.001
Myles Turner
Block · Nov 8, 2022
Metallic Gold LE
RARESeries 4
FMV
$4.00
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 399
Hit 0.13%Wt 0.001
Naji Marshall
3 Pointer · Mar 25, 2025
Breakout
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$4.00
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 399
Hit 0.13%Wt 0.001
Steph Curry
Assist · Mar 16, 2025
Hoop Vision
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.50
Recent Low
$0.39
Mint 2,500
Hit 1.27%Wt 0.013