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NBA Top Shot · Pack #5261
First Round: Chance Hit
Premium Chance Hit vs Chance Hit: what these packs contain →Common5 slots
Pack price
PrimarySOLD OUT
Secondary$15.00
Actual EV
—
≈ $4.03 ceiling · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 99% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $15.00 ask
Typical Pull
$1.15
Grail premium $2.88 — lottery-shaped
Value ratio
—
EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 99% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $15.00 ask
FMV coverage
100%
218 editions
Depletion
99%
pool · as of 22h ago
Packs remaining
92
of 10,000 minted · as of 22h ago
Packs Content Remaining
pool · as of 22h ago0.9%unopened
Ultimate0 / 1 (0.0%)
0 per 100 sealed packs · launch 0.01
Legendary2 / 200 (1.0%)
2.2 per 100 sealed packs · launch 2.0 · ≈ launch rate
Rare27 / 2,500 (1.1%)
29 per 100 sealed packs · launch 25 · 1.2× launch rate
Common431 / 47,299 (0.9%)
Pull odds by tier
5 slots/pack · as of 22h ago| Tier | Remaining | % of pool | Odds / pack |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ultimate | 0 / 1 | 0.0% | depleted |
| Legendary | 2 / 200 | 0.4% | ~1 in 46 |
| Rare | 27 / 2,500 | 5.9% | ~1 in 4 |
| Common | 431 / 47,299 | 94% | ~every pack |
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 5 slots, from the remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).
Top chases
highest-FMV pulls in this pack
What's Inside
FMV priced 218 of 218 (100%)Sorted among the 24 loaded editions · load more to sort the rest
Jamal Shead
Dunk · Mar 10, 2025
Rookie Revelation
LEGENDARYSeries 2024-25
FMV
$52.00
Recent Low
$89.00
Mint 75
Hit 0.22%Wt 0.002
Jalen Green
Dunk · Mar 26, 2025
Holo Icon
LEGENDARYSeries 2024-25
FMV
$38.25
Recent Low
$45.00
Mint 50
Hit 0.22%Wt 0.002
Stephon Castle
Jump Shot · Oct 24, 2024
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$16.00
Recent Low
$11.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 0.22%Wt 0.002
Cade Cunningham
Dunk · Apr 21, 2025
2025 NBA Playoffs: Rare
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$10.45
Recent Low
$6.00
Mint 299
Hit 0.22%Wt 0.002
Karl-Anthony Towns
3 Pointer · Apr 27, 2025
2025 NBA Playoffs: Rare
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$8.00
Recent Low
$7.00
Mint 299
Hit 0.22%Wt 0.002
Kevin Durant
Block · Jan 30, 2025
Denied!
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$7.50
Recent Low
$5.00
Mint 599
Hit 0.22%Wt 0.002
Andrew Wiggins
Dunk · Jan 10, 2022
Metallic Gold LE
RARESeries 3
FMV
$7.00
Recent Low
$13.00
Mint 749
Hit 0.22%Wt 0.002
John Collins
Dunk · Dec 14, 2024
Throwdowns
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$5.99
Recent Low
$6.00
Mint 599
Hit 0.22%Wt 0.002
Paul George
Layup · Feb 27, 2025
Metallic Gold LE
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$5.75
Recent Low
$5.00
Mint 299
Hit 0.22%Wt 0.002
Jaylen Brown
Steal · Apr 23, 2025
2025 NBA Playoffs: Rare
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$5.00
Recent Low
$8.75
Mint 299
Hit 0.22%Wt 0.002
Denver Nuggets
Dunk · Dec 14, 2023
Squad Goals
RARESeries 2023-24
FMV
$5.00
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 500
Hit 0.22%Wt 0.002
Portland Trail Blazers
Layup · Dec 14, 2023
Squad Goals
RARESeries 2023-24
FMV
$5.00
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 500
Hit 0.22%Wt 0.002
Kel'el Ware
Jump Shot · Nov 3, 2024
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$5.00
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 0.22%Wt 0.002
Sandro Mamukelashvili
Reel · Mar 20, 2025
Video Game Numbers
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$4.50
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 499
Hit 0.22%Wt 0.002
Cole Anthony
Dunk · Nov 30, 2023
Throwdowns
RARESeries 2023-24
FMV
$4.25
Recent Low
$5.00
Mint 699
Hit 0.22%Wt 0.002
Grayson Allen
Layup · Jan 11, 2025
Breakout
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$4.00
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 399
Hit 0.22%Wt 0.002
Guerschon Yabusele
Dunk · Feb 3, 2025
Breakout
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$4.00
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 399
Hit 0.22%Wt 0.002
Isaiah Joe
Reel · Jan 11, 2025
Breakout
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$4.00
Recent Low
$2.00
Mint 399
Hit 0.22%Wt 0.002
Naji Marshall
3 Pointer · Mar 25, 2025
Breakout
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$4.00
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 399
Hit 0.22%Wt 0.002
Golden State Warriors
3 Pointer · Nov 20, 2023
Squad Goals
RARESeries 2023-24
FMV
$4.00
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 500
Hit 0.22%Wt 0.002
Ja Morant
Dunk · Dec 8, 2024
Throwdowns
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$4.00
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 599
Hit 0.22%Wt 0.002
Lonzo Ball
Block · Feb 22, 2025
Denied!
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$4.00
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 599
Hit 0.22%Wt 0.002
LeBron James
Steal · Apr 22, 2025
2025 NBA Playoffs: Common
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$1.00
Recent Low
$1.00
Mint 2,025
Hit 1.09%Wt 0.011
Luka Dončić
Jump Shot · Apr 23, 2025
2025 NBA Playoffs: Common
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.80
Recent Low
$0.65
Mint 2,025
Hit 1.30%Wt 0.013