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NBA Top Shot · Pack #5455

Commissioner's Cup: Chance Hit

Common2 slots

Buy on secondary market Buy on Dapper →← All packs

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$10.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

attributed rips · sample

Moments pulled

158

from opened packs

Realized pull value

—

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

—

per pack we could price

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Bridget Carleton · WNBA 2024	COMMON	15.38%	$0.54	23.0%
Natasha Howard · WNBA 2025	COMMON	15.38%	$0.35	14.9%
Courtney Williams · WNBA 2025	COMMON	19.23%	$0.28	14.9%
Aliyah Boston · WNBA 2024	COMMON	11.54%	$0.37	11.8%
Kayla McBride · WNBA 2024	COMMON	11.54%	$0.36	11.5%

EV share = pull odds × FMV ÷ per-slot EV, over the editions remaining in the pool.

Sealed pack resale

Last $9.00 · 1y agoRetail $10.0061 sales

Pack price

PrimarySOLD OUT

Secondary$10.00

Actual EV

—

≈ $0.72 ceiling · EV inflated by survivor bias (95% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $10.00

Typical Pull

$0.70

Grail premium $0.02 — value evenly spread

Value ratio

—

EV inflated by survivor bias (95% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $10.00

FMV coverage

100%

8 editions

Depletion

95%

live pool

Packs remaining

of 240 minted

Packs Content Remaining

live pool · as of 16h ago

5.4%unopened

13 / 240 packs

Rare0 / 12 (0.0%)

Common26 / 468 (5.6%)

Pull odds by tier

2 slots/pack · as of 16h ago

Tier	Remaining	% of pool	Odds / pack
Rare	0 / 12	0.0%	depleted
Common	26 / 468	100%	~every pack

Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 2 slots, from the live remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).

Top chases

highest-FMV pulls in this pack

What's Inside

FMV priced 8 of 8 (100%)

Sales History

secondary pack sales

Traced via opened packs — partial coverage that grows over time. Buyer links open the wallet's full intelligence.

No traced sales yet for this pack.

Top pulls by EV

top 8 of 8

Player	Set	Tier	Drop %	FMV	Edition EV
Bridget Carleton	WNBA 2024	COMMON	2.37%	$0.54	$0.03
Courtney Williams	WNBA 2025	COMMON	2.96%	$0.28	$0.02
Natasha Howard	WNBA 2025	COMMON	2.37%	$0.35	$0.02
Aliyah Boston	WNBA 2024	COMMON	1.78%	$0.37	$0.01
Kayla McBride	WNBA 2024	COMMON	1.78%	$0.36	$0.01
Lexie Hull	WNBA 2025	COMMON	1.78%	$0.34	$0.01
NaLyssa Smith	WNBA 2024	COMMON	1.78%	$0.31	$0.01
Natisha Hiedeman	WNBA 2025	COMMON	0.59%	$0.29	<$0.01

Edition EV = FMV × (drop_weight / pool_weight) × slots. Sums to Gross EV over the full pool. Snapshotted 8/5/2026, 7:19:31 AM. Methodology: cached pack_ev_history via the compute-pack-ev edge function.