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NBA Top Shot · Pack #5540
Run It Back: Origins Chance Hit
Common2 slots
Pack price
PrimarySOLD OUT
Secondary$20.00
Actual EV
—
≈ $2.16 ceiling · EV inflated by survivor bias (99% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $20.00
Typical Pull
$0.48
Grail premium $1.68 — lottery-shaped
Value ratio
—
EV inflated by survivor bias (99% depleted) — honest value ≈ secondary ask $20.00
FMV coverage
100%
36 editions
Depletion
99%
pool · as of 67d ago
Packs remaining
60
of 10,999 minted · as of 67d ago
Packs Content Remaining
pool · as of 67d ago0.5%unopened
Legendary0 / 11 (0.0%)
Rare17 / 2,750 (0.6%)
Common103 / 19,237 (0.5%)
Pull odds by tier
2 slots/pack · as of 67d ago| Tier | Remaining | % of pool | Odds / pack |
|---|---|---|---|
| Legendary | 0 / 11 | 0.0% | depleted |
| Rare | 17 / 2,750 | 14% | ~1 in 4 |
| Common | 103 / 19,237 | 86% | ~1 in 1 |
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 2 slots, from the live remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).
Top chases
highest-FMV pulls in this pack
What's Inside
FMV priced 36 of 36 (100%)Patrick Ewing
Run It Back: Origins
RARE7
FMV
$13.78
Floor
$11.00
Mint 399
Hit 0.83%Wt 0.008
Damian Lillard
Run It Back: Origins
RARE7
FMV
$11.33
Floor
$10.00
Mint 399
Hit 0.83%Wt 0.008
Amar'e Stoudemire
Run It Back: Origins
RARE7
FMV
$7.41
Floor
$6.00
Mint 399
Hit 0.83%Wt 0.008
Ja Morant
For the Win
RARE6
FMV
$6.30
Floor
$5.00
Mint 453
Hit 0.83%Wt 0.008
Damon Stoudamire
Run It Back: Origins
RARE7
FMV
$6.00
Floor
$5.00
Mint 399
Hit 0.83%Wt 0.008
Tyrese Haliburton
Video Game Numbers
RARE6
FMV
$6.00
Floor
$4.00
Mint 499
Hit 0.83%Wt 0.008
John Wall
Run It Back: Origins
RARE7
FMV
$5.76
Floor
$5.00
Mint 399
Hit 0.83%Wt 0.008
DeMar DeRozan
Video Game Numbers
RARE5
FMV
$5.65
Floor
$4.00
Mint 499
Hit 0.83%Wt 0.008
Andrea Bargnani
Run It Back: Origins
RARE7
FMV
$5.54
Floor
$5.00
Mint 399
Hit 0.83%Wt 0.008
Dwight Howard
Run It Back: Origins
RARE7
FMV
$5.50
Floor
$5.50
Mint 399
Hit 0.83%Wt 0.008
Portland Trail Blazers
Squad Goals
RARE6
FMV
$5.33
Floor
$4.00
Mint 500
Hit 0.83%Wt 0.008
Luka Dončić
2022 All-Star Game
RARE4
FMV
$5.29
Floor
$4.00
Mint 2,022
Hit 0.83%Wt 0.008
Jimmy Butler
For the Win
RARE5
FMV
$4.97
Floor
$4.00
Mint 777
Hit 0.83%Wt 0.008
De'Aaron Fox
For The Win
RARE7
FMV
$4.38
Floor
$4.00
Mint 399
Hit 0.83%Wt 0.008
Bilal Coulibaly
Throwdowns
RARE7
FMV
$4.00
Floor
$3.00
Mint 599
Hit 0.83%Wt 0.008
Cam Reddish
Throwdowns
RARE2
FMV
$4.00
Floor
$4.00
Mint 1,800
Hit 0.83%Wt 0.008
Nick Richards
Breakout
RARE7
FMV
$3.73
Floor
$3.00
Mint 399
Hit 0.83%Wt 0.008
Jordan Poole
Base Set
COMMON7
FMV
$0.28
Floor
$0.20
Mint 8,000
Hit 6.67%Wt 0.067
RJ Barrett
Base Set
COMMON7
FMV
$0.27
Floor
$0.20
Mint 8,000
Hit 5.83%Wt 0.058
Lauri Markkanen
Base Set
COMMON7
FMV
$0.26
Floor
$0.10
Mint 8,000
Hit 7.50%Wt 0.075
Scottie Barnes
Base Set
COMMON7
FMV
$0.24
Floor
$0.20
Mint 8,000
Hit 9.17%Wt 0.092
Keegan Murray
Base Set
COMMON7
FMV
$0.24
Floor
$0.20
Mint 8,000
Hit 8.33%Wt 0.083
Jerami Grant
Base Set
COMMON7
FMV
$0.24
Floor
$0.15
Mint 8,000
Hit 7.50%Wt 0.075
Keyonte George
Base Set
COMMON7
FMV
$0.22
Floor
$0.05
Mint 8,000
Hit 5.83%Wt 0.058