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NBA Top Shot · Pack #5540
Run It Back: Origins Chance Hit
Premium Chance Hit vs Chance Hit: what these packs contain →Common2 slots
Pack price
PrimarySOLD OUT
Secondary$20.00
Actual EV
—
≈ $2.09 ceiling · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 99% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $20.00 ask
Typical Pull
$0.40
Grail premium $1.69 — lottery-shaped
Value ratio
—
EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 99% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $20.00 ask
FMV coverage
100%
36 editions
Depletion
99%
pool · as of 8m ago
Packs remaining
60
of 10,999 minted · as of 8m ago
Packs Content Remaining
pool · as of 8m ago0.5%unopened
Legendary0 / 11 (0.0%)
0 per 100 sealed packs · launch 0.10
Rare17 / 2,750 (0.6%)
28 per 100 sealed packs · launch 25 · 1.1× launch rate
Common103 / 19,237 (0.5%)
Pull odds by tier
2 slots/pack · as of 8m ago| Tier | Remaining | % of pool | Odds / pack |
|---|---|---|---|
| Legendary | 0 / 11 | 0.0% | depleted |
| Rare | 17 / 2,750 | 14% | ~1 in 4 |
| Common | 103 / 19,237 | 86% | ~1 in 1 |
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 2 slots, from the remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).
Top chases
highest-FMV pulls in this pack
What's Inside
FMV priced 36 of 36 (100%)Sorted among the 24 loaded editions · load more to sort the rest
Damian Lillard
Layup · Oct 31, 2012
Run It Back: Origins
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$15.00
Recent Low
$10.00
Mint 399
Hit 0.83%Wt 0.008
Luka Dončić
3 Pointer · Feb 21, 2022
2022 All-Star Game
RARESeries 3
FMV
$11.50
Recent Low
$5.00
Mint 2,022
Hit 0.83%Wt 0.008
Patrick Ewing
Dunk · Jan 29, 1986
Run It Back: Origins
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$11.00
Recent Low
$10.00
Mint 399
Hit 0.83%Wt 0.008
John Wall
Steal · Nov 2, 2010
Run It Back: Origins
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$6.75
Recent Low
$5.00
Mint 399
Hit 0.83%Wt 0.008
Ja Morant
Layup · Dec 20, 2023
For the Win
RARESeries 2023-24
FMV
$6.32
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 453
Hit 0.83%Wt 0.008
Amar'e Stoudemire
Dunk · Dec 31, 2002
Run It Back: Origins
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$6.25
Recent Low
$5.00
Mint 399
Hit 0.83%Wt 0.008
Dwight Howard
Dunk · Nov 4, 2004
Run It Back: Origins
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$6.25
Recent Low
$5.50
Mint 399
Hit 0.83%Wt 0.008
Andrea Bargnani
Dunk · Feb 5, 2007
Run It Back: Origins
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$5.00
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 399
Hit 0.83%Wt 0.008
Tyrese Haliburton
Reel · Nov 22, 2023
Video Game Numbers
RARESeries 2023-24
FMV
$5.00
Recent Low
$4.89
Mint 499
Hit 0.83%Wt 0.008
Portland Trail Blazers
Layup · Dec 14, 2023
Squad Goals
RARESeries 2023-24
FMV
$5.00
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 500
Hit 0.83%Wt 0.008
Jimmy Butler
Dunk · Feb 11, 2023
For the Win
RARESeries 4
FMV
$4.25
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 777
Hit 0.83%Wt 0.008
Damon Stoudamire
Handles · Mar 27, 1996
Run It Back: Origins
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$4.00
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 399
Hit 0.83%Wt 0.008
De'Aaron Fox
Jump Shot · Mar 2, 2025
For The Win
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$4.00
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 399
Hit 0.83%Wt 0.008
Cam Reddish
Dunk · Jan 12, 2021
Throwdowns
RARESeries 2
FMV
$4.00
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 1,800
Hit 0.83%Wt 0.008
Nick Richards
Dunk · Jan 26, 2025
Breakout
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$3.00
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 399
Hit 0.83%Wt 0.008
DeMar DeRozan
Reel · Mar 18, 2023
Video Game Numbers
RARESeries 4
FMV
$3.00
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 499
Hit 0.83%Wt 0.008
Bilal Coulibaly
Dunk · Jan 26, 2025
Throwdowns
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$3.00
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 599
Hit 0.83%Wt 0.008
Toumani Camara
Block · Feb 13, 2025
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.28
Recent Low
$0.19
Mint 8,000
Hit 5.83%Wt 0.058
Keyonte George
3 Pointer · Feb 6, 2025
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.26
Recent Low
$0.25
Mint 8,000
Hit 5.83%Wt 0.058
Scottie Barnes
Dunk · Feb 1, 2025
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.23
Recent Low
$0.21
Mint 8,000
Hit 9.17%Wt 0.092
Lauri Markkanen
Dunk · Feb 13, 2025
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.23
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 8,000
Hit 7.50%Wt 0.075
Jordan Poole
3 Pointer · Mar 29, 2025
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.20
Recent Low
$0.19
Mint 8,000
Hit 6.67%Wt 0.067
Keegan Murray
Dunk · Nov 28, 2024
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.19
Recent Low
$0.17
Mint 8,000
Hit 8.33%Wt 0.083
Jerami Grant
Jump Shot · Oct 27, 2024
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.19
Recent Low
$0.17
Mint 8,000
Hit 7.50%Wt 0.075