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NBA Top Shot · Pack #5542
Run It Back: Origins Chance Hit
Premium Chance Hit vs Chance Hit: what these packs contain →Common
Pack price
PrimarySOLD OUT
Secondary$199
Actual EV
—
≈ $0.44 ceiling · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 100% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $199 ask
Typical Pull
$0.20
Grail premium $0.24 — value evenly spread
Value ratio
—
EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 100% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $199 ask
FMV coverage
100%
26 editions
Depletion
100%
pool · as of 1d ago
Packs remaining
14
of 9,999 minted · as of 1d ago
Packs Content Remaining
pool · as of 1d ago0.1%unopened
Legendary0 / 10 (0.0%)
0 per 100 sealed packs · launch 0.10
Rare2 / 2,500 (0.1%)
14 per 100 sealed packs · launch 25 · 0.6× launch rate
Common26 / 17,488 (0.1%)
Pull odds by tier
per pack · as of 1d ago| Tier | Remaining | % of pool | Odds / pack |
|---|---|---|---|
| Legendary | 0 / 10 | 0.0% | depleted |
| Rare | 2 / 2,500 | 7.1% | — |
| Common | 26 / 17,488 | 93% | — |
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across the slots, from the remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).
Top chases
highest-FMV pulls in this pack
What's Inside
FMV priced 26 of 26 (100%)Sorted among the 24 loaded editions · load more to sort the rest
Greg Oden
Block · Jan 20, 2009
Run It Back: Origins
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$4.00
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 399
Hit 3.57%Wt 0.036
Spencer Dinwiddie
Block · Mar 9, 2024
For the Win
RARESeries 2023-24
FMV
$3.00
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 699
Hit 3.57%Wt 0.036
Ty Jerome
Assist · Feb 1, 2022
Base Set
COMMONSeries 3
FMV
$0.33
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 60,000
Hit 3.57%Wt 0.036
Keon Ellis
Steal · Mar 25, 2025
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.28
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 8,000
Hit 7.14%Wt 0.071
Scottie Barnes
Dunk · Feb 1, 2025
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.24
Recent Low
$0.21
Mint 8,000
Hit 3.57%Wt 0.036
Karl-Anthony Towns
Dunk · Nov 14, 2024
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.21
Recent Low
$0.21
Mint 8,000
Hit 3.57%Wt 0.036
John Wall
Layup · Mar 23, 2021
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2
FMV
$0.21
Recent Low
$0.15
Mint 40,000
Hit 3.57%Wt 0.036
Derrick Rose
Assist · Oct 22, 2021
Base Set
COMMONSeries 3
FMV
$0.21
Recent Low
$0.17
Mint 60,000
Hit 3.57%Wt 0.036
Jordan Poole
3 Pointer · Mar 29, 2025
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.20
Recent Low
$0.19
Mint 8,000
Hit 7.14%Wt 0.071
Bilal Coulibaly
Dunk · Dec 20, 2024
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.20
Recent Low
$0.17
Mint 8,000
Hit 3.57%Wt 0.036
Bol Bol
3 Pointer · Mar 1, 2025
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.20
Recent Low
$0.17
Mint 8,000
Hit 3.57%Wt 0.036
Keldon Johnson
Assist · Mar 22, 2025
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.20
Recent Low
$0.15
Mint 8,000
Hit 3.57%Wt 0.036
Markelle Fultz
Layup · Mar 1, 2022
Base Set
COMMONSeries 3
FMV
$0.20
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 30,000
Hit 3.57%Wt 0.036
Naji Marshall
3 Pointer · Feb 13, 2022
Base Set
COMMONSeries 3
FMV
$0.20
Recent Low
$0.18
Mint 60,000
Hit 3.57%Wt 0.036
Jerami Grant
Jump Shot · Oct 27, 2024
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.19
Recent Low
$0.17
Mint 8,000
Hit 3.57%Wt 0.036
Jonas Valančiūnas
Jump Shot · Dec 2, 2023
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2023-24
FMV
$0.19
Recent Low
$0.18
Mint 8,000
Hit 3.57%Wt 0.036
Keegan Murray
Dunk · Nov 28, 2024
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.19
Recent Low
$0.17
Mint 8,000
Hit 3.57%Wt 0.036
Desmond Bane
Dunk · Dec 5, 2021
Base Set
COMMONSeries 3
FMV
$0.19
Recent Low
$0.14
Mint 60,000
Hit 3.57%Wt 0.036
Max Strus
Dunk · Dec 12, 2021
Base Set
COMMONSeries 3
FMV
$0.19
Recent Low
$0.11
Mint 60,000
Hit 3.57%Wt 0.036
Davion Mitchell
Block · Feb 14, 2025
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.18
Recent Low
$0.18
Mint 8,000
Hit 3.57%Wt 0.036
Josh Richardson
Block · Nov 11, 2021
Base Set
COMMONSeries 3
FMV
$0.18
Recent Low
$0.15
Mint 60,000
Hit 3.57%Wt 0.036
Mikal Bridges
3 Pointer · Mar 30, 2025
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.17
Recent Low
$0.17
Mint 8,000
Hit 3.57%Wt 0.036
Boban Marjanović
Layup · Nov 16, 2021
Base Set
COMMONSeries 3
FMV
$0.17
Recent Low
$0.14
Mint 60,000
Hit 3.57%Wt 0.036
Isaiah Hartenstein
Dunk · Oct 24, 2021
Base Set
COMMONSeries 3
FMV
$0.17
Recent Low
$0.15
Mint 60,000
Hit 3.57%Wt 0.036