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NBA Top Shot · Pack #5783
Run It Back: 1970s Chance Hit Pack (Wave 1)
Premium Chance Hit vs Chance Hit: what these packs contain →Common3 slots
Pack price
PrimarySOLD OUT
Secondary$7.50
Actual EV
—
≈ $2.32 ceiling · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 95% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $7.50 ask
Typical Pull
$0.99
Grail premium $1.33 — lottery-shaped
Value ratio
—
EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 95% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $7.50 ask
FMV coverage
100%
100 editions
Depletion
95%
pool · as of 14h ago
Packs remaining
240
of 4,998 minted · as of 14h ago
Packs Content Remaining
pool · as of 14h ago4.8%unopened
Ultimate0 / 3 (0.0%)
0 per 100 sealed packs · launch 0.06
Rare25 / 497 (5.0%)
10 per 100 sealed packs · launch 9.9 · ≈ launch rate
Common695 / 14,494 (4.8%)
Pull odds by tier
3 slots/pack · as of 14h ago| Tier | Remaining | % of pool | Odds / pack |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ultimate | 0 / 3 | 0.0% | depleted |
| Rare | 25 / 497 | 3.5% | ~1 in 10 |
| Common | 695 / 14,494 | 97% | ~every pack |
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 3 slots, from the remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).
Top chases
highest-FMV pulls in this pack
What's Inside
FMV priced 100 of 100 (100%)Sorted among the 24 loaded editions · load more to sort the rest
Bob McAdoo
Dunk · Apr 18, 1975
Run It Back: 1970s
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$15.00
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 299
Hit 0.69%Wt 0.007
Damian Lillard
Layup · Oct 31, 2012
Run It Back: Origins
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$15.00
Recent Low
$10.00
Mint 399
Hit 0.14%Wt 0.001
Nate Thurmond
Jump Shot · Oct 31, 1971
Run It Back: 1970s
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$14.90
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 299
Hit 0.56%Wt 0.006
Patrick Ewing
Dunk · Jan 29, 1986
Run It Back: Origins
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$11.00
Recent Low
$10.00
Mint 399
Hit 0.14%Wt 0.001
Toni Kukoč
3 Pointer · Nov 11, 1993
Run It Back: Origins
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$9.50
Recent Low
$5.00
Mint 399
Hit 0.14%Wt 0.001
Pascal Siakam
Hook Shot · Oct 26, 2016
Run It Back: Origins
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$8.50
Recent Low
$6.00
Mint 399
Hit 0.14%Wt 0.001
Connie Hawkins
Reel · Dec 26, 1970
Run It Back: 1970s
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$8.00
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 299
Hit 0.28%Wt 0.003
Alexandre Sarr
Dunk · Oct 24, 2024
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$8.00
Recent Low
$7.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 0.14%Wt 0.001
Dwight Howard
Dunk · Nov 4, 2004
Run It Back: Origins
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$6.25
Recent Low
$5.50
Mint 399
Hit 0.14%Wt 0.001
Muggsy Bogues
3 Pointer · Nov 11, 1987
Run It Back: Phantom Threads
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$5.50
Recent Low
$5.00
Mint 299
Hit 0.14%Wt 0.001
Andrea Bargnani
Dunk · Feb 5, 2007
Run It Back: Origins
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$5.00
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 399
Hit 0.28%Wt 0.003
Amar'e Stoudemire
Dunk · Feb 22, 2015
Run It Back: Phantom Threads
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$5.00
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 299
Hit 0.14%Wt 0.001
David Thompson
Dunk · Jan 23, 1978
Run It Back: 1970s
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$4.00
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 299
Hit 0.56%Wt 0.006
Zaccharie Risacher
3 Pointer · Oct 23, 2024
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$3.50
Recent Low
$2.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 0.28%Wt 0.003
Tristan da Silva
Layup · Nov 1, 2024
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$2.18
Recent Low
$1.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 0.42%Wt 0.004
De'Aaron Fox
3 Pointer · Feb 6, 2025
Fresh Threads
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$1.00
Recent Low
$1.00
Mint 2,024
Hit 1.53%Wt 0.015
Keion Brooks Jr.
Layup · Mar 30, 2025
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.63
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 4,000
Hit 5.97%Wt 0.06
Drew Timme
Layup · Mar 28, 2025
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.60
Recent Low
$0.39
Mint 4,000
Hit 5.28%Wt 0.053
Ausar Thompson
Assist · Mar 18, 2025
Hoop Vision
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.60
Recent Low
$0.49
Mint 2,500
Hit 3.19%Wt 0.032
Bobi Klintman
Block · Mar 2, 2025
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.60
Recent Low
$0.36
Mint 4,000
Hit 2.78%Wt 0.028
Alex Reese
Dunk · Mar 23, 2025
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.59
Recent Low
$0.36
Mint 4,000
Hit 7.78%Wt 0.078
Damion Baugh
3 Pointer · Feb 13, 2025
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.55
Recent Low
$0.45
Mint 4,000
Hit 4.03%Wt 0.04
Steph Curry
Assist · Mar 16, 2025
Hoop Vision
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.50
Recent Low
$0.39
Mint 2,500
Hit 3.19%Wt 0.032
Jalen Brunson
Assist · Mar 2, 2025
Hoop Vision
COMMONSeries 2024-25
FMV
$0.50
Recent Low
$0.40
Mint 2,500
Hit 1.67%Wt 0.017