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Home › NBA Top Shot › Origins Premium Chance Hit NBA Top Shot · Pack #6418
Origins Premium Chance Hit Common 3 slots
Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$14.00] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value. Pack price
Primary SOLD OUT
Secondary $14.00
Actual EV
—
≈ — ceiling · EV last computed 25 days ago — not a current read; treat it as historical
Value ratio
—
EV last computed 25 days ago — not a current read; treat it as historical
Depletion
98%
pool · as of 25d ago
Packs remaining
244
of 9,995 minted · as of 25d ago
Packs Content Remaining pool · as of 25d ago Common 691 / 29,148 (2.4%)
Pull odds by tier 3 slots/pack · as of 25d ago Tier Remaining % of pool Odds / pack Ultimate 0 / 4 0.0% depleted Legendary 2 / 103 0.3% ~1 in 118 Rare 15 / 730 2.1% ~1 in 16 Common 691 / 29,148 98% ~every pack
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 3 slots, from the live remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).
Top chases highest-FMV pulls in this pack
What's Inside pullable editions FMV ↓ Mint ↑ Series ↓ A → Z
Load 24 more
▸ Exhausted / pulled out (24)
💬 Observed pack lifecycle Packs opened
1,755
attributed rips · sample
Moments pulled
5,265
from opened packs
Realized pull value
$71.66
total, priced pulls
Avg / pack
$3.26
per pack we could price
Sealed (observed)
1
still unopened
What drives the remaining EV Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.
Edition Tier Pull % FMV EV share Kel'el Ware · Mojo LEGENDARY 33.33% $156 76.3% Ace Bailey · Origins RARE 33.33% $48.14 23.6% Tre Mann · Base Set COMMON 33.33% $0.25 0.1%
EV share = pull odds × FMV ÷ per-slot EV, over the editions remaining in the pool.
Sealed pack resale Median $12.00 (90d) Last $12.50 · 1mo ago Retail $13.00 1,669 sales · 8 in 90d
trades ~0.92× retail
Sales History secondary pack sales Traced via opened packs — partial coverage that grows over time. Buyer links open the wallet's full intelligence.
Top pulls by EV top 3 of 0 33d ago
Edition EV = FMV × (drop_weight / pool_weight) × slots. Sums to Gross EV over the full pool. Snapshotted 8/27/2026, 7:07:49 PM. Methodology: cached pack_ev_history via the compute-pack-ev edge function.