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NBA Top Shot · Pack #7824
Rookie Reign: Chance Hit
Premium Chance Hit vs Chance Hit: what these packs contain →Common3 slots
Pack price
PrimarySOLD OUT
Secondary$10.99
Actual EV
—
≈ $2.77 ceiling · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 99% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $10.99 ask
Typical Pull
$0.81
Grail premium $1.96 — lottery-shaped
Value ratio
—
EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 99% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $10.99 ask
FMV coverage
100%
64 editions
Depletion
99%
pool · as of 9h ago
Packs remaining
82
of 10,000 minted · as of 9h ago
Packs Content Remaining
pool · as of 9h ago0.8%unopened
Legendary0 / 28 (0.0%)
0 per 100 sealed packs · launch 0.28
Rare14 / 2,000 (0.7%)
17 per 100 sealed packs · launch 20 · 0.9× launch rate
Common232 / 27,972 (0.8%)
Pull odds by tier
3 slots/pack · as of 9h ago| Tier | Remaining | % of pool | Odds / pack |
|---|---|---|---|
| Legendary | 0 / 28 | 0.0% | depleted |
| Rare | 14 / 2,000 | 5.7% | ~1 in 6 |
| Common | 232 / 27,972 | 94% | ~every pack |
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 3 slots, from the remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).
Top chases
highest-FMV pulls in this pack
What's Inside
FMV priced 64 of 64 (100%)Sorted among the 24 loaded editions · load more to sort the rest
Ace Bailey
Dunk · Oct 23, 2025
Rookie Debut
COMMONSeries 2025-26
FMV
$30.00
Recent Low
$22.00
Mint 1,000
Hit 0.41%Wt 0.004
Scottie Barnes
Layup · Oct 20, 2021
Base Set
COMMONSeries 3
FMV
$18.00
Recent Low
$15.00
Mint 4,000
Hit 0.41%Wt 0.004
Jalen Brunson
3 Pointer · Dec 7, 2019
Base Set
COMMONSeries 1
FMV
$13.00
Recent Low
$10.00
Mint 3,999
Hit 0.41%Wt 0.004
Brooks Barnhizer
Layup · Nov 2, 2025
Origins
RARESeries 2025-26
FMV
$12.00
Recent Low
$19.00
Mint 129
Hit 0.41%Wt 0.004
Austin Reaves
3 Pointer · Feb 6, 2026
Metallic Gold LE
RARESeries 2025-26
FMV
$10.00
Recent Low
$8.00
Mint 199
Hit 0.41%Wt 0.004
Jaylen Brown
Dunk · Nov 30, 2024
NBA Cup
RARESeries 2024-25
FMV
$9.00
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 399
Hit 0.81%Wt 0.008
Paul Pierce
Dunk · Mar 19, 2006
Run It Back 2005-06
RARESummer 2021
FMV
$8.00
Recent Low
$7.00
Mint 990
Hit 0.41%Wt 0.004
Jamal Murray
Layup · Feb 29, 2024
Metallic Gold LE
RARESeries 2023-24
FMV
$7.00
Recent Low
$6.00
Mint 299
Hit 0.41%Wt 0.004
Chris Paul
Handles · Jun 27, 2021
And Then There Were Four
RARESeries 2
FMV
$7.00
Recent Low
$5.00
Mint 750
Hit 0.41%Wt 0.004
Anthony Davis
Block · Feb 3, 2023
Metallic Gold LE
RARESeries 4
FMV
$6.50
Recent Low
$6.00
Mint 399
Hit 0.41%Wt 0.004
Brook Lopez
Reel
2022-23 Honors
RARESeries 4
FMV
$6.00
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 215
Hit 0.41%Wt 0.004
Grayson Allen
3 Pointer · Nov 11, 2025
Equinox
RARESeries 2025-26
FMV
$6.00
Recent Low
$7.00
Mint 249
Hit 0.41%Wt 0.004
Carmelo Anthony
3 Pointer · Jan 2, 2021
Metallic Gold LE
RARESeries 2
FMV
$6.00
Recent Low
$8.97
Mint 499
Hit 0.41%Wt 0.004
Jaylen Brown
Dunk · Mar 13, 2022
Throwdowns
RARESeries 3
FMV
$4.25
Recent Low
$5.00
Mint 888
Hit 0.41%Wt 0.004
Joel Embiid
Block · Jan 11, 2022
Squad Goals
RARESeries 4
FMV
$4.00
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 458
Hit 0.41%Wt 0.004
Bam Adebayo
Dunk · Jan 8, 2023
Throwdowns
RARESeries 4
FMV
$4.00
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 888
Hit 0.41%Wt 0.004
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Dunk · Mar 2, 2026
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2025-26
FMV
$0.65
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 4,000
Hit 2.44%Wt 0.024
Tristan da Silva
Dunk · Mar 11, 2026
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2025-26
FMV
$0.56
Recent Low
$0.25
Mint 4,000
Hit 1.63%Wt 0.016
Leonard Miller
Dunk · Mar 24, 2026
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2025-26
FMV
$0.49
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 4,000
Hit 2.85%Wt 0.028
Rob Dillingham
Steal · Mar 17, 2026
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2025-26
FMV
$0.36
Recent Low
$0.32
Mint 4,000
Hit 3.66%Wt 0.037
Collin Sexton
3 Pointer · Mar 9, 2026
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2025-26
FMV
$0.30
Recent Low
$0.27
Mint 4,000
Hit 3.25%Wt 0.033
Killian Hayes
3 Pointer · Mar 28, 2026
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2025-26
FMV
$0.30
Recent Low
$0.19
Mint 4,000
Hit 3.25%Wt 0.033
Pat Connaughton
3 Pointer · Mar 4, 2026
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2025-26
FMV
$0.27
Recent Low
$0.20
Mint 4,000
Hit 4.88%Wt 0.049
Ochai Agbaji
Dunk · Mar 29, 2026
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2025-26
FMV
$0.24
Recent Low
$0.15
Mint 4,000
Hit 4.47%Wt 0.045