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NBA Top Shot · Pack #8511
2026 NBA Playoffs: Premium Chance Hit
Premium Chance Hit vs Chance Hit: what these packs contain →Rare
Pack price
PrimarySOLD OUT
Secondary$72.99
Actual EV
—
≈ $5.91 ceiling · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 92% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $72.99 ask
Typical Pull
$3.00
Grail premium $2.91 — lottery-shaped
Value ratio
—
EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 92% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $72.99 ask
FMV coverage
100%
112 editions
Depletion
94%
pool · as of 22h ago
Packs remaining
34
of 600 minted · as of 22h ago
Packs Content Remaining
pool · as of 22h ago5.7%unopened
Ultimate0 / 1 (0.0%)
0 per 100 sealed packs · launch 0.17
Legendary2 / 28 (7.1%)
5.9 per 100 sealed packs · launch 4.7 · 1.3× launch rate
Rare100 / 1,771 (5.6%)
294 per 100 sealed packs · launch 295 · ≈ launch rate
Common102 / 1,800 (5.7%)
Pull odds by tier
per pack · as of 22h ago| Tier | Remaining | % of pool | Odds / pack |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ultimate | 0 / 1 | 0.0% | depleted |
| Legendary | 2 / 28 | 1.0% | — |
| Rare | 100 / 1,771 | 49% | — |
| Common | 102 / 1,800 | 50% | — |
Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across the slots, from the remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).
Top chases
highest-FMV pulls in this pack
What's Inside
FMV priced 112 of 112 (100%)Sorted among the 24 loaded editions · load more to sort the rest
Vince Carter
3 Pointer · Apr 26, 2014
Run It Back: Playoff Classics
LEGENDARYSeries 2025-26
FMV
$260
Recent Low
$289
Mint 44
Hit 0.49%Wt 0.005
Gilbert Arenas
Jump Shot · May 4, 2005
Run It Back: Playoff Classics
LEGENDARYSeries 2025-26
FMV
$161
Recent Low
$179
Mint 44
Hit 0.49%Wt 0.005
Victor Wembanyama
Dunk · Mar 25, 2026
Throwdowns
RARESeries 2025-26
FMV
$37.49
Recent Low
$21.00
Mint 249
Hit 1.96%Wt 0.02
LeBron James
Dunk · Jan 18, 2026
Base Set
COMMONSeries 2025-26Club Collection
FMV
$18.00
Recent Low
$16.00
Mint 99
Hit 0.49%Wt 0.005
Keyonte George
Floater · Dec 27, 2025
For The Win
RARESeries 2025-26
FMV
$9.00
Recent Low
$9.00
Mint 249
Hit 2.45%Wt 0.025
Jalen Brunson
3 Pointer · Dec 19, 2025
For The Win
RARESeries 2025-26
FMV
$8.00
Recent Low
$7.00
Mint 249
Hit 1.96%Wt 0.02
LaMelo Ball
Layup · Apr 14, 2026
For The Win
RARESeries 2025-26
FMV
$7.49
Recent Low
$5.00
Mint 249
Hit 1.96%Wt 0.02
Brandon Miller
Dunk · Dec 19, 2025
Throwdowns
RARESeries 2025-26
FMV
$7.49
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 249
Hit 0.98%Wt 0.01
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Dunk · Jan 3, 2026
For The Win
RARESeries 2025-26
FMV
$7.00
Recent Low
$5.00
Mint 249
Hit 1.47%Wt 0.015
Matas Buzelis
Dunk · Dec 24, 2025
Throwdowns
RARESeries 2025-26
FMV
$7.00
Recent Low
$6.00
Mint 249
Hit 0.98%Wt 0.01
Paolo Banchero
Layup · Dec 31, 2025
For The Win
RARESeries 2025-26
FMV
$5.99
Recent Low
$5.00
Mint 249
Hit 0.98%Wt 0.01
Nae'Qwan Tomlin
Dunk · Jan 17, 2026
Throwdowns
RARESeries 2025-26
FMV
$5.82
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 249
Hit 1.47%Wt 0.015
Jalen Williams
Dunk · Dec 23, 2025
Throwdowns
RARESeries 2025-26
FMV
$5.38
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 249
Hit 1.96%Wt 0.02
Gary Payton II
Dunk · Mar 10, 2026
Throwdowns
RARESeries 2025-26
FMV
$5.00
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 249
Hit 1.96%Wt 0.02
Scottie Barnes
Dunk · Jan 11, 2026
Throwdowns
RARESeries 2025-26
FMV
$5.00
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 249
Hit 1.96%Wt 0.02
Pascal Siakam
Block · Mar 23, 2026
For The Win
RARESeries 2025-26
FMV
$5.00
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 249
Hit 1.47%Wt 0.015
Immanuel Quickley
3 Pointer · Jan 8, 2026
For The Win
RARESeries 2025-26
FMV
$5.00
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 249
Hit 0.98%Wt 0.01
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
Jump Shot · Feb 6, 2026
For The Win
RARESeries 2025-26
FMV
$4.99
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 249
Hit 1.47%Wt 0.015
Luke Kennard
3 Pointer · Mar 21, 2026
For The Win
RARESeries 2025-26
FMV
$4.00
Recent Low
$5.55
Mint 249
Hit 2.45%Wt 0.025
Jaden McDaniels
Dunk · Dec 28, 2025
Throwdowns
RARESeries 2025-26
FMV
$4.00
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 249
Hit 1.47%Wt 0.015
Kawhi Leonard
Jump Shot · Mar 27, 2026
For The Win
RARESeries 2025-26
FMV
$4.00
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 249
Hit 1.47%Wt 0.015
Jalen Green
3 Pointer · Feb 21, 2026
For The Win
RARESeries 2025-26
FMV
$3.50
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 249
Hit 1.96%Wt 0.02
Shaedon Sharpe
Dunk · Nov 15, 2025
Throwdowns
RARESeries 2025-26
FMV
$3.40
Recent Low
$4.00
Mint 249
Hit 1.96%Wt 0.02
Olivier-Maxence Prosper
Dunk · Mar 17, 2026
Throwdowns
RARESeries 2025-26
FMV
$3.00
Recent Low
$3.00
Mint 249
Hit 2.94%Wt 0.029