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NBA Top Shot · Pack #8893

The Immortals Challenge Reward

Rare1 slot

Buy on secondary market Buy on Dapper →← All packs

Value still sealed≈ $31.52/pack▼ 25% below the $42.11 secondary ask· EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 77% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $42.11 askTypical pull ≈ $25.50 · grail premium $6.02 (lottery-shaped)

Pack EV computed against the live secondary ask [$42.11] — what a sealed pack actually resells for, the only honest anchor for its value.

Observed pack lifecycle

Packs opened

131

attributed rips · sample

Moments pulled

131

from opened packs

Realized pull value

$2,438

total, priced pulls

Avg / pack

$28.68

per pack we could price

Sealed (observed)

still unopened

EV reality check

Modeled $31.52/packvs realized $28.68 avg · $25.50 median · $58.50 p90(0.91×)

Calibrated estimate $27.58/packmodel blended toward observed pulls

Model tracks actual pulls · 85 attributed opens

What drives the remaining EV

Each row is an edition still in the pool. EV share = pull odds × FMV as a fraction of the pack per-slot expected value — what the remaining contents are actually worth.

Edition	Tier	Pull %	FMV	EV share
Grant Hill · The Immortals	RARE	7.69%	$90.00	22.0%
Jason Kidd · The Immortals	RARE	15.38%	$29.75	14.5%

Sealed pack resale

Median $38.00 (90d)Last $42.85 · yesterdayRetail $42.1142 sales · 42 in 90d

trades ~0.90× retail

Pack price

PrimarySOLD OUT

Secondary$42.11

Actual EV

$31.52

Net −$10.59 vs ask · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 77% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $42.11 ask

Typical Pull

$25.50

Grail premium $6.02 — lottery-shaped

Value ratio

0.75x

-25.1% margin · EV inflated by survivor bias (pool 77% drawn) — a ceiling, already below the $42.11 ask

FMV coverage

100%

10 editions

Depletion

77%

pool · as of 6h ago

Packs remaining

of 170 minted · as of 6h ago

Packs Content Remaining

pool · as of 6h ago

23%unopened

39 / 170 packs

Rare39 / 170 (23%)

100 per 100 sealed packs · launch 100 · ≈ launch rate

Pull odds by tier

1 slots/pack · as of 6h ago

Tier	Remaining	% of pool	Odds / pack
Rare	39 / 170	100%	~every pack

Odds/pack ≈ chance of at least one card of that tier across 1 slots, from the remaining pool. Approximate (assumes independent slots).

Top chases

highest-FMV pulls in this pack

Buyer	Sale price	When
@RomeNYC	$59.00	4d ago
@tcm1968	$49.99	5d ago
@BinkleyPonyFarm	$45.00	6d ago
@caboem	$44.00	2d ago
@caboem	$44.00	10d ago
@Thejay	$44.00	16d ago
@BinkleyPonyFarm	$43.99	6d ago
@BinkleyPonyFarm	$43.99	12d ago
@caboem	$43.95	14d ago
@HellNawlCantDoDis	$43.94	15d ago

Buyer	Sale price	When
@Squirrelclaw	$42.85	18h ago
@Squirrelclaw	$39.00	18h ago
@Squirrelclaw	$38.00	18h ago
@Squirrelclaw	$37.99

Player	Set	Tier	Drop %	FMV	Edition EV
Grant Hill	The Immortals	RARE	7.69%	$90.00	$6.92
Jason Kidd	The Immortals	RARE	15.38%	$29.75	$4.58

The Immortals Challenge Reward

What drives the remaining EV

Packs Content Remaining

Pull odds by tier

Top chases

What's Inside

Sales History

Top pulls by EV

What drives the remaining EV

Sales History

Top pulls by EV