The model says one number — opened packs pull another. We compare each NFL All Day pack’s odds-corrected expected value against the value its packs actually delivered, resolved on-chain from real opens. Thin and stale-FMV dists are excluded; only packs with 5+ observed opens qualify.
The corrected model expected more than these packs actually pulled — buyer beware, the headline EV runs hot.
| Pack | Model EV | Realized avg | Median | Ratio | Opens |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premium (Series 1, Week 17) | $46.08 | $3.71 | $3.71 | 0.08× | 8,666 |
| New York Giants - First Release | $2.37 | $0.23 | $0.23 | 0.10× | 415 |
| Los Angeles Rams - First Release | $3.64 | $0.50 | $0.50 | 0.14× | 447 |
| Playoff Icons Premium | $23.56 | $6.18 | $5.15 | 0.26× | 2,981 |
| Super Bowl LIX Standard | $2.99 | $1.00 | $0.63 | 0.33× | 6,315 |
| Legends of the Turf Hot Route | $2.89 | $1.25 | $1.01 | 0.43× | 11,445 |
| Super Bowl LIX Legendary | $368 | $175 | $216 | 0.47× | 94 |
| Playoff Icons Premium | $7.25 | $4.34 | $4.34 | 0.60× | 2,961 |
These packs out-pulled their modeled EV — the model was conservative on what came out.
| Pack | Model EV | Realized avg | Median | Ratio | Opens |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holo Icon: Legendary Guaranteed Hit (November - 2025) | $1.42 | $574 | $574 | 404.28× | 300 |
| Wild Card Weekend: Premium Chance | $0.92 | $68.05 | $4.26 | 73.97× | 3,483 |
| Legends of the Turf Legendary | $9.40 | $348 | $177 | 37.07× | 186 |
| Holo Icon Premium - December (2024 Season) | $0.92 | $27.70 | $27.70 | 30.11× | 3,084 |
| Ground Greatness: Guaranteed Hit | $1.34 | $34.08 | $34.08 | 25.43× | 462 |
| Rewind Premium | $0.86 | $19.71 | $2.99 | 22.92× | 2,460 |
| Premium (Series 2, Week 5-8) | $4.62 | $103 | $103 | 22.20× | 5,267 |
| Wild Card Weekend: Chance | $0.68 | $11.71 | $1.00 | 17.22× | 3,778 |
| Ravens Vintage Premium | $1.06 | $17.87 | $17.87 | 16.86× | 324 |
| Wideout Wonders: Guaranteed Hit | $1.50 | $20.79 | $12.17 | 13.86× | 472 |
| Holo Icon: Premium Guaranteed Hit (September - 2025) | $1.14 | $14.49 | $14.49 | 12.71× | 1,996 |
| Regal Rookies: Guaranteed Hit | $2.17 | $27.17 | $22.54 | 12.52× | 1,439 |
Modeled EV and realized pulls line up within a quarter — the EV here is trustworthy.
| Pack | Model EV | Realized avg | Median | Ratio | Opens |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historical I: In the Spotlight | $2.61 | $2.99 | $2.61 | 1.15× | 50,458 |
| Standard (Series 1, Week 13) | $2.60 | $2.36 | $1.08 | 0.91× | 50,289 |
| Hot Route (Series 2, Playoff Push) | $0.66 | $0.59 | $0.41 | 0.89× | 41,456 |
| Holo Icon Quick Rips (2024 Season) | $0.67 | $0.67 | $0.68 | 1.00× | 13,544 |
| Road to Super Bowl LVII (Standard) | $2.38 | $2.54 | $2.54 | 1.07× | 8,563 |
| Launch Codes: Chance Hit | $0.77 | $0.66 | $0.53 | 0.86× | 8,516 |
| Fresh Faces & Trophy Races Hot Route | $1.50 | $1.85 | $1.91 | 1.23× | 6,430 |
| Grail Seeker Chance Hit - November 2025 | $0.89 | $0.78 | $0.46 | 0.88× | 4,963 |
| Starter Pack | $0.48 | $0.52 | $0.49 | 1.08× | 4,107 |
| Starter Pack (Series 2, Release 1) | $0.47 | $0.55 | $0.55 | 1.17× | 4,100 |
| Divisional Round Hot Route - Second Chance | $0.41 | $0.35 | $0.35 | 0.85× | 3,702 |
| Rookie Debut Premium - Wave 2 (2024 Season) | $2.58 | $2.91 | $2.91 | 1.13× | 2,897 |
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