The model says one number — opened packs pull another. We compare each NFL All Day pack’s odds-corrected expected value against the value its packs actually delivered, resolved on-chain from real opens. Thin and stale-FMV dists are excluded; only packs with 5+ observed opens qualify.
The corrected model expected more than these packs actually pulled — buyer beware, the headline EV runs hot.
| Pack | Model EV | Realized avg | Median | Ratio | Opens · valued |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Playoff Icons Premium | $32.14 | $4.93 | $4.73 | 0.15× | 2,981 · 12 |
| Standard (Series 1, Week 18) | $3.09 | $1.63 | $1.20 | 0.53× | 42,365 · 196 |
| Super Bowl LIX Standard | $2.59 | $1.50 | $0.93 | 0.58× | 6,315 · 13 |
These packs out-pulled their modeled EV — the model was conservative on what came out.
| Pack | Model EV | Realized avg | Median | Ratio | Opens · valued |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Legends of the Turf Legendary | $8.28 | $403 | $137 | 48.72× | 186 · 17 |
| Holo Icon: Premium Guaranteed Hit (November - 2025) | $1.31 | $18.32 | $5.92 | 13.98× | 1,672 · 15 |
| Playoff Icons: Legendary (2026) | $75.45 | $714 | $272 | 9.47× | 53 · 20 |
| Wild Card Weekend: Premium Chance | $1.05 | $9.62 | $3.20 | 9.16× | 3,483 · 1,506 |
| Rewind Premium | $1.10 | $8.72 | $2.98 | 7.93× | 2,462 · 2,150 |
| Conference Championships: Premium Chance | $1.07 | $7.84 | $2.25 | 7.33× | 2,488 · 1,266 |
| Divisional Round: Premium Chance | $1.08 | $7.79 | $2.96 | 7.21× | 2,492 · 1,312 |
| Divisional Round: Standard | $0.81 | $4.21 | $1.20 | 5.20× | 3,389 · 1,589 |
| Wild Card Weekend: Standard | $0.77 | $3.33 | $2.17 | 4.33× | 1,226 · 666 |
| Premium (Series 2, Week 5-8) | $3.88 | $14.02 | $3.23 | 3.61× | 5,267 · 21 |
| Conference Championships: Standard | $0.80 | $2.88 | $1.13 | 3.60× | 2,650 · 1,710 |
| Holo Icon: Chance Hit II (September - 2025) | $0.88 | $3.00 | $1.18 | 3.41× | 5,960 · 38 |
Modeled EV and realized pulls line up within a quarter — the EV here is trustworthy.
| Pack | Model EV | Realized avg | Median | Ratio | Opens · valued |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (Series 1, Week 13) | $1.95 | $1.99 | $1.00 | 1.02× | 50,289 · 49 |
| Regal Rookies Quick Rips (2024 Season) | $1.31 | $1.60 | $0.85 | 1.22× | 25,119 · 14 |
| Standard (Series 2, Week 3-4) | $0.90 | $0.84 | $0.75 | 0.93× | 23,552 · 30 |
| Standard (Series 2, Week 5-8) | $1.13 | $1.34 | $0.90 | 1.19× | 13,013 · 14 |
| Super Bowl LVIII Hot Route | $0.63 | $0.69 | $0.49 | 1.09× | 11,049 · 12 |
| Rookie Debut: Chance Hit I | $0.76 | $0.77 | $0.59 | 1.01× | 9,479 · 238 |
| Wideout Wonders: Chance Hit | $0.76 | $0.83 | $0.56 | 1.09× | 8,807 · 14 |
| Launch Codes: Chance Hit | $0.67 | $0.65 | $0.59 | 0.97× | 8,516 · 31 |
| Spark of Greatness Quick Rips (2024 Season) | $0.53 | $0.66 | $0.42 | 1.25× | 8,409 · 16 |
| Ground Greatness: Chance Hit | $0.70 | $0.84 | $0.55 | 1.20× | 7,923 · 33 |
| Mystery Rookie Pack (April 2024) | $0.75 | $0.87 | $0.70 | 1.16× | 7,322 · 13 |
| Holo Icon: Chance Hit I (December - 2025) | $1.15 | $1.36 | $0.79 | 1.18× | 7,237 · 69 |
